Tensions rise ahead of Dodik's verdict: How will state institutions react?

(Patria) - The day for the verdict against RS President Milorad Dodik and acting Director of "Official Gazette of RS" Miloš Lukić for non-compliance with the High Representative Christian Schmidt's decisions is approaching.

The SNSD has announced radical measures in the event of a guilty verdict. Will this affect the political and security situation in BiH, and how?

In RS, there will be a clear response in the case of Dodik's verdict, "because he is being tried for fulfilling obligations that the Constitution imposes on him," writes BHRT.

They are prepared for various options, and all, according to SNSD, are in accordance with the Constitutions of BiH and RS, and the Dayton Agreement. They state that RS has long had a new constitution ready for adoption.

- We have already prepared a new constitution and are waiting for the moment it will be adopted, probably in a referendum of all citizens of RS, because that constitution should also eliminate all that the High Representatives have illegally and unlawfully changed in the Constitution of RS - said SNSD spokesperson Radovan Kovačević.

- Competencies that were not defined by the Dayton Agreement, and were later transferred through Parliament by voting, can only be returned in the same way. As long as we are there, that will never happen.

Dodik would now unilaterally terminate all competencies for which he voted to be transferred to the BiH level. That is not possible, it is not known in law, it is not appropriate, and it will never happen - claims the President of People and Justice, Elmedin Konaković.

Whatever the outcome of the judicial process in the case of Dodik and Lukić, it will cause strong reactions in both BiH and the region, analysts agree. A complication of political relations can be expected depending on the decisions made.

- The temperature will likely rise until the verdict is delivered. What will happen afterwards is very difficult to predict, given the existence of these numerous scenarios - believes political analyst Tanja Topić.

- It is obvious that the measures announced in RS, namely the ban on the work of SIPA, the Court and the Prosecutor's Office in the territory of RS, are measures that have elements of a coup d'état. Now the only question is whether Dodik will proceed and step into that.

Now the question is how the institutions responsible for protecting the constitutional order will react and whether they are capable of reacting in the right way in the event of an open rebellion to protect the constitutional order - points out journalist and political analyst Amir Sužanj.

Ahead of the verdict, a two-day rally has been announced in front of the NSRs building, which will be in continuous session. Citizens are asking how the entire situation will affect security in BiH?

- The rally will not disrupt the security situation, but what could happen after a potentially guilty verdict is delivered - it could be a real challenge for BiH - says Slobodan Župljanin, Dean of the Faculty of Security and Protection in Banja Luka.

- I don't think security is threatened. If there were certain gatherings or minor security incidents, I think the state has and should have very precise plans - says Sandi Dizdarević, professor of criminal psychology.

NATO Headquarters and the EUFOR mission have emphasized the importance of maintaining stability and peace and stated that they will prevent any attempt at destabilization in the country.