Hot summer 2026 arrives: Temperatures above average, July particularly extreme!

(Patria) - The Federal Hydrometeorological Institute of Bosnia and Herzegovina has published a seasonal forecast for the summer of 2026 (period 1 June – 31 August), based on dynamic and statistical models SEECof 35 and MedCOF 26, as well as its own forecasting models.

According to the forecast, the summer of 2026 is expected to be warmer compared to the reference climatological period 1991–2020, with a probability of the forecast being realised greater than 60 percent. Positive temperature anomalies are predicted for all three summer months, with the largest deviations expected in July.

The spatial distribution shows that more pronounced temperature anomalies could be present in the northern parts of Bosnia and Herzegovina. At the same time, shorter periods with temperatures lower than usual for that time of year are possible during the summer.

The forecast also indicates that the summer of 2026 could be somewhat cooler compared to the exceptionally hot summer of 2025, especially in June.

According to estimates, the number of warm days in Bosnia during the summer should be greater than 60, while around 82 warm days are expected in southern Herzegovina.

When it comes to precipitation, meteorologists point out that seasonal forecasts are less reliable. Nevertheless, current models do not indicate a pronounced signal of deviation in total precipitation from the multi-year average. The most likely scenario is slightly less precipitation than average, with mountainous areas possibly remaining closer to usual values.

During the summer, local and occasionally intense downpours are expected, which can bring amounts of precipitation characteristic of longer periods in a short time. Longer dry intervals are also possible, but their exact timing cannot be specified at this stage.

The FHMZ recommends monitoring medium-range forecasts and regular daily meteorological bulletins for timely information.