To Whom Christian Schmidt Writes Late: Nothing Will Be Resolved if the PIC Session Is Delayed!

Written by: Rasim Belko @rasimbelko

Answering the question of whether High Representative Christian Schmidt has understood the full destructiveness of his actions, aimed exclusively at the Federation entity, is not a simple task.

Because it seems that only when Milorad Dodik institutionally began the process of separation did the lights go on for Schmidt, realizing that the High Representative is for the entire Bosnia and Herzegovina. For the first time, Schmidt sent a message to the authorities and politics of the RS that can partly be seen as an action plan. And in that plan, there is also a threat of moves by the Steering Board of the Peace Implementation Council.

However, if media reports are accurate, Schmidt's letter reached the RS National Assembly before the session on the Declaration of the All-Serb Assembly, i.e., on Monday. So, four days after the letter, the Declaration was adopted on Tuesday, and there are still no indications of when the "plan" of action by the OHR and PIC might begin to be implemented.

This leads us to a second dilemma: is Schmidt once again acting toward the separatist activities of the RS as Denis Bećirović once did in the BiH Parliament? That is, with statements that end up in the wastebasket and have absolutely no significance.

How serious Schmidt is, or if he is serious at all, will be shown in the coming days. Because prompt action against Serbian politics is no longer just a matter of the OHR's mandate to implement the civilian aspect of the General Framework Agreement, but a choice between stopping a process that is taking us back to a state of war, in which the RS, with the help of Serbia, is trying to alienate almost half of the country.

And that is a prelude to armed conflict, and neither Schmidt, nor the PIC, nor the Quint embassies need to consider or speculate whether that is an option. It is a war option, because there is no policy in Sarajevo that can or should gamble with the integrity of the state.

If they do not want a new hotspot to open in the Balkans, which neither the US nor the EU can afford at the moment, then they must review the actions of the OHR and other international instances in BiH over the last at least five years.

Because in those five years, Dodik's separatism has escalated, and Dodik himself has strengthened to the point where he no longer shies away from realizing his political ideas. For his political strength, which grew over those five years, the exclusive and direct culprit is the international community represented through the OHR and PIC. The international community is also indirectly guilty because it installed the Troika project in state power, which strengthened Dodik as much as he demanded, so now he has absolute control over processes in all directions.

Thus, due to the fault of the international community, Schmidt, and their Troika project, Dodik today acts as an indestructible political phenomenon that threatens to spark a new armed conflict in the Balkans, which could have incalculable effects on the entire European Union.

All the more so, Schmidt's responsibility and that of the PIC Steering Board gains weight because not only is he obliged by mandate to protect the peace agreement and the territorial integrity of BiH, but the reaction to Dodik's separatism is perhaps the most important strategic move in the Balkans at this moment.

If they hesitate, and they have shown that in the case of Dodik and Dragan Čović they know very well how to hesitate and split hairs to avoid confrontation, then the PIC Steering Board and Schmidt should be considered culprits for the explosion of a new war. This certainly, from a strategic perspective, suits Putin's Russia, as well as some other Eastern countries.

Every additional day of hesitation brings us closer to the breaking point of everything built over the past 30 years. If that is not the plan of the US, Great Britain, the EU, and the rest of the Western powers, then it is five minutes to midnight to neutralize and remove the cancerous body of the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina with decisive action.

Letters are fine as a form of public warning, but Schmidt has also seen that they are just ink on paper. Decisions that Schmidt and the PIC have the mandate to make must be resolute and prompt.

Otherwise, nothing but war!