NONSENSE OR NOT: Collapse of the coalition in TK would mean the final erosion of SDA's credibility!

By: Rasim Belko

The leadership and president of SDA, Bakir Izetbegović, no longer intend to comment on the recent events in the Una-Sana Canton, where the party abandoned the agreement with NES, DF, and the Party for BiH. This is how the Public Relations Service responded to Patria's inquiry as to whether SDA bodies would consider sanctioning disobedient cadres in USK.

And while we were waiting for information on the resolution of the situation in USK, stories began to circulate in public and in the corridors that a similar scenario is being prepared in the Tuzla Canton, where the government consists of SDA, DF, and independent MPs who have renounced their party affiliation.

Information we have obtained indicates that part of the Tuzla SDA structures is preparing a government reconstruction, partly due to the struggle for dominance in the party elections for that level of government. However, our sources say that the biggest reason is the struggle for positions and budget funds, and that SDA is rushing into a situation that could leave it without any coalition credibility for future processes.

Given that SDA bodies and the president himself clearly have no intention of taking any measures against disobedient party cadres in USK, even though Izetbegović threatened them with consequences for their decisions, the local structures of that party in TK have clearly received encouragement for their intentions.

Safet Softić, president of the SDA Main Board and the only one from the so-called Mehmedović's structure present at the party congress, was characterized as the leader of the process of disrupting SDA's cooperation at the cantonal level with NES, DF, and the Party for BiH. It will turn out that after everything, he received a position for his loyalty, but he denies claims of participating in the collapse of cantonal governments.

"That's nonsense," Softić briefly replied when asked about his role in all of this.

Along with Softić, among the cadres working on the recomposition of power in TK are Fahrudin Skopljak and the current Prime Minister Irfan Halilagić.

Halilagić responded to our question: "A meeting between coalition partners on the functioning of the majority and resolving open issues should be held tomorrow. That is the only correct way for coalition partners to communicate. Everything else that appears are speculations and political gossip that destabilize the cantonal institutions".

The response of the TK Prime Minister is more or less similar to all other responses from SDA cadres to questions about the transformation of the parliamentary majority.

Muamer Zukić, vice-president of SDA and president of the Bosniak Club from the TK region, says he has no information that a government reconstruction is underway in TK.

"I wouldn't comment on USK. When it comes to the state level, I think that coalition capacity, i.e., the 'pro-Bosnian political bloc,' must be preserved. I presented my stance on this to the party bodies and explained it with several arguments," Zukić told us.

From the answers we received from SDA structures that have a say in the functioning of the government in TK, we could infer that the government in that canton is quite stable, but sources from other parties we spoke with say the situation is not so clear and bright.

Primarily due to the fact that SDA's party apparatus is huge and many appetites must be satisfied, which cannot be done without compromising coalition capacities.

If we interpret this information, it is not excluded that SDA will replace its coalition partners in TK with SDP, which would agree to enter the government with much fewer demands. However, for now, everyone in SDA denies this.

Our sources say that the intention of SDA TK to change partners in TK has been ongoing for a long time, much before the events in HNK and USK.

And this could be linked to visits from representatives of the international community, as US Ambassador Michael Murphy first discussed with the TK Prime Minister, and then British Ambassador Julian Reilly visited Tuzla and the cantonal Prime Minister.

And this could be an additional trap for Tuzla SDA, because until now, from the functioning of the 'trojka' as a product of American-British actions, they should have learned a lesson, i.e., realized that these actions have little connection with the interests of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Because, if the scenarios from Mostar and Bihać are repeated in Tuzla, SDA will be left in opposition at higher levels, while having a majority of prime ministers at the cantonal level. If they look more closely, jobs of maintaining social peace, building water supply systems, and similar local-level issues will be their burden, while at the same time they will not have anyone to talk to for any serious discussion at the state and entity level.

Therefore, it is no longer just about whether a coalition capacity can be established for local or general elections; it is also about SDA being on the defensive towards the Sarajevo 'trojka' and towards former partners.

In short, no matter how big the party is, its actions will be in a serious predicament that could cost it voter support, especially in the General Elections of 2026.

After all, Izetbegović himself announced that his goal is to strengthen the party in his last term at its head, and if he continues to silently observe local cadres' interests becoming more important than the state, then it is clear that his last term may also be recorded as the time when SDA ended its era of power.

Given the history of SDA's rise, it is difficult to expect that lost power can be regained anytime soon.

All of this is the price of not stopping the erosion of SDA's credibility and capacity, because it is difficult to measure how much of the budget funds the local "political businessmen" of that party can swallow.