Why European banks did not help Agrokor, and why Russian banks are doing so

It is acknowledged today that Agrokor's over-indebtedness was a problem as early as four years ago. By what economic logic was Mercator bought three years ago with new Russian loans and why was this risk taken? What is the strategy behind spreading the crisis to the region? Or was it something else entirely? That 'something else' is being clumsily revealed these days, raising suspicions that everything was done very deliberately and according to plan, including taking out loans from Sberbank not for any particular needs, but for the unreasonable expansion into the sensitive Slovenian market.

It was an expansion of financial dubiousness, not any serious investments. Everything was already being done unimaginably unreasonably and hazardously back then. The question is – why?

The fact is that Sberbank complained about Agrokor concealing a billion euros in debt when taking out loans from their bank. It is impossible that the Croatian state was unaware of this. In the end, Sberbank did not communicate only with Todorić and his financial experts, but also with the Croatian state. Namely, any borrowing, especially the 1.4 billion from Sberbank and other Russian banks like VTB, had to pass through the control lines and channels of the Croatian National Bank, and all other banking institutions in the Republic of Croatia had to be aware of it. Today, everyone is feigning ignorance. How did Todorić end up being pushed into an investment catastrophe?

In early June, Sberbank submitted requests to commercial courts in Serbia to prohibit the sale of assets of the companies Frikom and Dijamant, which operate within Agrokor, and requested the forced execution of claims against shares in the companies MG Mivela, owned by Jamnica, Nova Sloga from Trstenik, and Idea.

Today, it is difficult to find Dijamant products, such as quality oil, in Konzum stores, and other products from Agrokor's Serbian companies are also disappearing.

Bosnia and Herzegovina has not been left out. Sberbank has requested the Municipal Court in Sarajevo to prohibit the sale or encumbrance of Agrokor's shares in Konzum Sarajevo and the company Ambalažni servis. The hearing was scheduled for September 14, then postponed to October 5. At the same time, Sberbank submitted a request to the Municipal Court in Travnik for a temporary measure prohibiting the sale or credit encumbrance of shares that Jamnica holds in Sarajevski kiseljak.

Today, we have no answers from domestic economic experts on how it is possible that Slovenian Mercator took over Konzum's assets in BiH overnight? After all, Sberbank took over almost 20 percent ownership of Mercator in Slovenia.

Agrokor currently owes 6.2 billion euros, which is a higher debt than that of the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Bosnia and Herzegovina will soon be part of an ugly game where all options are open. The question is whether Croatia can use and abuse the paternalistic position it has unjustly and suspiciously acquired over the years in relation to Bosnia and Herzegovina?

The European Union gave Croatia a huge amount of money for the construction of the Pelješac Bridge without a single coherent address to the institutions of Bosnia and Herzegovina. They could have also proposed that their powerful banks buy Agrokor's debt from Sberbank. Isn't Croatia part of the European family?

However, there has been no serious reaction from European institutions to what is happening around Agrokor for a long time. There have been some lukewarm reactions, but they do not align with the declarative stance of the European Union and its partially active advocacy against Russia's influence in the Western Balkans. The European factor is still undecided on what it wants to do with the Western Balkans. It seems that Europe is divided into two levels. On one political level, the stance towards Russia is softening, while on the other military – NATO level, there is evident fear and tension.

Ivica Todorić has jumped on all these paranoid suspicions, accusing Croatian institutions of forcing him to hand over Agrokor to the state. The knot should soon be definitively untangled. Where will Sberbank collect its nearly 20 percent ownership stake in Mercator? Perhaps only in Bosnia and Herzegovina, where Mercator magically took over Konzum's centers and factories in Kiseljak?