Vučković: The situation will get complicated, but there will be no major conflict in the world

By Mr. Vladimir Vučković / Patria

Daily events in the world have worried citizens across the region and the globe. My neighbors and friends are no longer worried, at least not so much, by the difficult economic situation prevailing in our society, because they are all debating the downed Russian plane in the sky over Syria. The most current question these days is: "Will Russia attack Turkey?"

Following portals and reading daily newspapers, I encounter various understandings and assessments of the current situation. Some prophecies are being pulled out of mothballs, statements and analyses by various figures are being published, who, despite being inadequately educated and poorly informed, are spreading absurdities through the media. God help journalistic ethics.

In one of my earlier articles, I wrote about a potential future conflict between NATO and the Russian Federation. At that time, I outlined possible scenarios that could unfold, but only in the event of war. Now I will try to answer the, ungrateful, question: "Will there be a war?"

If we look back, we will see that the "two blocs" that would potentially be warring parties are traditional allies. During the two world wars, Russia, in various forms of existence from monarchy to the Soviet Union, was a hardworking and very desirable ally for France, England, and the USA. With the disappearance of the potential threat from Germany and its satellites, the eternal allies naturally become enemies through the course of events. From a strategic point of view, this is absolutely justified, because an old Roman proverb says: "An empire will exist as long as it has an enemy, and if it doesn't, then one must be invented!".

Will there be a war?

There have been many incidents in modern history, from 1945 to the present day, that could very easily have escalated into a thermonuclear conflict. Let's go in order. After the cooling of relations between the USA and the USSR, the Western allies could not "peek behind the iron curtain" that was raised over the vast Soviet territory. The only way was aerial reconnaissance. A daring project codenamed U-2 began in 1955. According to CIA data at the time, the U-2 aircraft at a maximum altitude of 21,000 meters was not within the range of Soviet air defense and radar. Through hard work and significant investment, the project was completed, and aerial photography of Soviet territory could begin from a safe distance. On May 1, 1960, the photography began. Not long after the plane entered Soviet airspace, a fiasco occurred. Soviet air defense detected the U-2 plane and shot it down with a surface-to-air missile.

The next similar incident occurred in 1983. Through the actions of the KGB, the Soviets obtained information that a passenger plane would be equipped with aerial reconnaissance equipment. A Korean Air Lines plane on a regular flight from New York to Seoul deviated from its usual route and entered a prohibited zone of USSR airspace. After two hours of flying over Soviet territory and refusing to leave the zone, a Soviet Su-15 fighter jet was ordered to shoot down the plane. In this incident, 270 passengers and crew members were killed.

In addition to incidents in the sky, there was also an incident at sea, well-known to all of us. After the deployment of NATO medium-range missiles in Turkey, Soviet leader Nikita S. Khrushchev was justifiably concerned, because, as he said at the time, those missiles could hit his dacha, his vacation home. The Soviet leadership began to consider an adequate response. The most adequate and purposeful response was... Cuba. Within a few days, the USSR secretly transported 22,000 soldiers, 144 surface-to-air missile systems, 42 MiG-21 fighter jets, 42 Il-28 bombers, and 80 missiles with nuclear warheads to Cuba. The Cuban Missile Crisis was the closest moment to boiling over and the start of a war. Cool heads and the negotiating skills of diplomats from both blocs achieved a compromise. The missiles in Turkey and Cuba were dismantled.

Mr. Vladimir Vučković

Mentioning a global war at this moment would be extremely hasty and unprofessional. The fact is that there are many controversies related to the downing of the Russian plane in Syria; Turkey and Russia must resolve this first.

The situation in that region will certainly become complicated, and there will be further divisions within the NATO alliance, as some very important members, France and Germany, would gladly see Russia as a partner in the fight against terrorists. In addition, the Russian Federation will be forced to deploy additional air defense systems in Syria and reinforce its fighter jet squadron with more aircraft. The arrival of the cruiser "Moskva" with its phenomenal air-to-air missiles will further heat up the cauldron simmering in the Middle East. But what I am currently quite convinced of is the fact that there will be no new major conflict in the world for now.