Vučić should not end up in the basement, Albanians and possibly Bosniaks are there!

By: Rasim Belko

How many times have we heard that the international community from the West is lenient towards the excursions and double game of Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, because it sees him as a regional leader who alone can maintain peace in these parts of ours.

And that is indeed the case, primarily the Americans, and consequently the rest of the Western diplomacy, have forgiven Vučić for resisting the recognition of Russian aggression, attempts to cooperate with the Kremlin while Kyiv was burning, interference in the internal affairs of neighboring countries, dealings with China, and so on.

All so that Vučić would not experiment with conflicts and rattle his weapons, because such a thing would damage the image of Westerners that they brought peace, enlightenment, and prosperity to our regions.

Vučić was a conversationalist who was listened to and whose positions always carried more weight on the diplomatic-political scale than all other regional leaders. This was particularly evident in the months when Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti refused to sign the Community of Serb Municipalities in the north of Kosovo, which is actually Republika Srpska as an enclave of Serbia.

Kurti was the naughty boy of Balkan politics because he did not want to curry favor with the West and yield to Vučić, who, on the other hand, was a constructive partner who sought and agreed to compromise. The fact that this compromise suited only Vučić did not bother anyone in the West.

However, Kurti played the long game, so to speak, using Serbian tactics of wearing down and getting used to things. And thus, he drew Vučić and the Serbian establishment into a mistake that could very easily turn out to be cardinal. Impatient to wait, Vučić sends mercenaries and special forces to Kosovo to provoke an uprising against Kosovo. However, the Kosovo police quickly thwart the operation of Vučić's special forces; some die, others flee, and others are on the wanted list.

Vučić wanted to show strength to Kurti, but he suffered such a quick and explosive defeat that he is still trying to understand what happened to him in silence.

And what happened to him is what happened to Vladimir Putin when he thought he would conquer Kyiv in a few days. No matter how strong the aggressor country's army is, the fight for bare life and survival is stronger than all artillery machines. Putin knows this now, Vučić has known it since the time he looked at Sarajevo through the sights of an umbrella.

That is why Vučić does not dare to order the Serbian Army to enter Kosovo, because a defeat would primarily shatter the internal myth of Serbia's strength, and secondarily, the international community would lose its argument that it must keep Vučić on a pedestal because he is the only leader in the region who can control peace and stability.

In fact, Vučić is now aware that his image as a regional factor of stability is hanging by a thread after Kosovo and that any similar game could finish off his reputation. Therefore, he will probably hide behind the cheapening of bologna and bread for domestic consumption, while on the international stage he will continue to play the role of a president concerned about regional peace, Serbs in Kosovo, and so on.

That he is aware of the price he will pay for the failure of the Banjska operation, Vučić also showed in an interview with CNN, saying: “incidents in the north are in no way in Serbia's interest, considering that European mediators in the dialogue with Kosovo have labeled it as a constructive partner”.

Therefore, Kurti leads by a narrow margin, and whether he will have the strength to ensure the final resolution of the Kosovo issue depends most of all on the international community, which must finally make a decision, because the longer the Belgrade-Pristina conflict lasts, the greater the chances of escalation.

However, resolving the Kosovo issue would open up the question of resolving the last Yugoslav issue - Bosnia and Herzegovina. And again, the role of Aleksandar Vučić is very important, given that Milorad Dodik's secessionist plans rely mostly on the military support of Serbia as the protector of Serbs wherever they live.

And here, not only the fate of Bosnia and Herzegovina, i.e., its entity RS, but also Serbia itself depends on Vučić. If he provides the expected military support and moves into the territory of the internationally recognized state of Bosnia and Herzegovina, he will break his teeth, just as those before him did.

Because the aggressor army is at a disadvantage in terms of endurance due to the motive that drives the defense and liberation forces. His S400s, planes, cannons, and the like will not help him much, just as the strength of the JNA did not help the duo Milošević - Karadžić. On the other hand, it is difficult to expect him to receive significant support on the international level, considering the increasingly widespread separatist movements.

Milošević ended up as a loser because he led Serbia into bloody wars and ended his life in a cell in The Hague, but Vučić, if he continues, will end up in the basement, behind which Albanians and Bosniaks are waiting. And it is difficult to escape alive from the basement!

I mean politically alive, so that Pink doesn't think I'm planning an assassination for him!