Hours-long debate of English lords on the fate of BiH: Everything must be done for the state to survive

English lords consulted yesterday with General Michael Rose, former commander of UNPROFOR in Bosnia and Herzegovina, on how England can influence stability in BiH, who is the main cause of problems in the country, and what it would mean if the BiH entity RS joined Serbia, and whether conflicts in the country will escalate again, reports the Patria agency.

Lord Howell: Welcome General Rose. Our attention is turned to the investigation that is just beginning, focused on the situation in the Western Balkans, the UK's involvement in that region... Also, we want to focus on a new phase of development... You were the commander of UNPROFOR in 1994 and 1995... the rift and cracks of the '90s were inherited by an apparent peace. Is that peace fragile, is it real, will conflicts explode again, or can we expect a calmer period?

Sir Michael Rose: ... the Bosnian war was the most brutal of all wars. I think the international community has not yet fully understood it, including us, and the connections that war has with the current problems we encounter in the Western Balkans now have not been understood either... Many of the problems we have today arose from the way that war ended... The reports we have today speak of a rise in xenophobia, ongoing corruption, which ultimately constitutes proof that the governance standards required by the EU do not exist. Growing elements of radicalization, especially among Muslims, and the unwillingness of Serbs to accept the Dayton dream tied to a unified nation – these are all reasons why the country is more divided than ever. There is even a risk that it will become a failed state. Tensions and grievances, in my opinion, stem from the Dayton Agreement, which, also in my opinion, was built on lies. This has led to injustices that still have an effect today...

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Lord Hannay: I do not entirely agree with your analysis, Sir Michael, but I think it is now more useful to look towards the future. Also, I think we should broaden our horizons not only to BiH; the former Yugoslavia is not just BiH, although BiH is at the heart of these problems. I want to ask you what the international community has learned from this and how it can maintain peace in the region...? What do you think is the way forward?

Sir Michael Rose: It is clear that Britain has a strategic interest in what will happen with the Western Balkans. I think no one today would agree with the well-known saying: No normal man gets involved in the Balkans. Also, we have 72 Britons, mostly soldiers, who died in the Western Balkans since the beginning of the 1990s, and we want to show that they did not sacrifice themselves in vain. My view is that, despite the fact that we are leaving the EU, we must support the Union's efforts in persuading these countries to join it, but not only the Union but also NATO. We must insist on the standards needed for EU and NATO accession, not only in technical terms but also in moral and judicial terms. Currently, my biggest concern is President Trump's isolationist policy, as well as the budget cuts for the Western Balkans, which could leave a vacuum that Russia could fill.

Lord Jopling: ... could everything break apart again so that we find ourselves where we were?

Sir Michael Rose: I think there is always a chance for something like that. Winston Churchill said that the Balkans have so much history that it is impossible to separate history from the present, since what is happening today is based on what happened in the past. In the Balkans, what you see on the surface is not important, but what is happening beneath the surface... I think the threat of BiH becoming a failed state is actually great, especially I mean the Bosnian Serbs who do not accept the idea of a single entity in the state. Of course, the Dayton Agreement gave them that opportunity to flex their muscles, and they have been doing that for the last 20 years, and that should not have been allowed. Another threat is jihadists. Also, you have a crumbling economy...

Lord Grocott: When you talk about a failed state, aren't the basic ingredients of that Serbia and the Serbian minority in BiH? What can be done to prevent BiH from becoming a failed state? It seems to me impossible to see Serbia, which is losing Kosovo, accepting this status quo?

Sir Michael Rose: There is a lot of Serbian population that is dissatisfied, displaced in the area of RS, not only those who came from Krajina, but also those who came from Kosovo. Serbia would rather put pressure on RS to continue the EU path than to take over part of the Serbian population from this area and thus create a problem for itself. I think that is part of the game. One of the first lessons I learned in the Balkans is that what you see is not what you get. And another is that they generally tell lies because they have a different agenda they are pursuing. So, there are many games we should not react to. We have strong enough leaders that we can use to prevent the disintegration of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which, as you yourself said, is unthinkable. Then we would end up with a Croatian part that would join Croatia. Europe would be left with the impossible, which is to maintain a small Muslim state in the middle.  

Watch the complete conversation of the lords and General Rose in the video attachment: