Višća: The security situation in the Western Balkans is precarious, but can be kept under control

(Patria) - Today's topic of Krug 99 is 'Security Challenges and Possible Responses of BiH Authorities'. The topic is certainly in the focus of public interest, even when it is discussed quietly and even seemingly conspiratorially.

The introductory speaker was military-political analyst Hamza Višća.

"In the Security Policy of 2006, Bosnia and Herzegovina considers its independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity as its main values, and defines their protection as its priority interest. Accession to the European Union and NATO remains the basic priority of activities at all levels.

In this regard, the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina has made an effort to consider global, regional, and internal security challenges, and accordingly define appropriate policies.

While noting that in that year we were on a good path of transition of Bosnian-Herzegovinian society and the state of BiH from the Dayton phase of peace preservation to the Brussels phase of a secure and prosperous society, I will refrain from analyzing this document, opting to say a few sentences about the current
global, regional, and internal security challenges of our country and possible responses to them," said Višća.

He adds that the list of global security challenges includes regional wars, migrations, climate change, natural disasters and fires, terrorism, and cyber attacks.

"Each of the listed can affect our country to a greater or lesser extent. We are on the South-North, Northwest migration route, natural disasters and climate change do not bypass us, terrorist acts are just as possible as in other countries of the world. Hacker attacks happen to us, albeit on a smaller scale, and Russia is present, in one way or another.

The world has significantly entered a somewhat violent phase of recomposition of the world order. Russia's aggression against Ukraine, the escalation of the Israel-Palestine war in the Middle East, constant tensions in the Asia-Pacific region, and events in Africa and South America are just some of the indicators of the confrontation
between contenders for a leading or leading role in the world.

There is still no literal kinetic clash between the USA, China, or Russia, which in my opinion is a result of the fact that none of these countries are ready for war," he pointed out.

When I talk about regional challenges, Višća emphasizes that I must start with Russia's aggression against Ukraine.

"The war in Ukraine is at a turning point. Russia is on a serious offensive, and Ukraine, together with the West, faces a choice - to achieve peace at the expense of Ukraine or to continue the war until the complete liberation of its own territory. There is no general consensus for either. The West has not found a formula – how Ukraine can win and Russia not lose. But Finland and Sweden, on the other hand, have found a formula for greater security, they have joined the North Atlantic Alliance.

Even without a major escalation of Russia-West relations regarding Russian aggression against Ukraine, the security situation in the Western Balkans is precarious, but it can be kept under control. Of course, not in the way it has been done so far – by forcing stabilocracy, without a more serious and effective influence of the EU, NATO, and the USA," Višća stated.

Incidentally, the Western Balkan region is overwhelmingly committed to European, and mostly to Euro-Atlantic integrations.

"Serbia promotes the policy of the 'Serbian world', with a focus on the entity of Republika Srpska in BiH, Montenegro, and Kosovo, without neglecting Croatia and North Macedonia.

In the region, and even within Bosnia and Herzegovina, policies and interests are promoted that attack the sovereignty and integrity of Bosnia and Herzegovina and its perspective of a civic liberal democracy. When all this is added up, we come to the current moment - Russia's influence in the Western Balkans is very intense and focused on incapacitating the countries in the region for European and Euro-Atlantic integrations," added Višća.