The Troika, USA, and Dodik: Consequences of Compromise on the Path to the 'Serb World'

By: Amina Čorbo-Zećo

The current crisis caused by Milorad Dodik is part of the realization of the 'Serb world' plan. If the 'problem' with the court proceedings against Dodik hadn't happened, something else would have been the pretext for policies from Republika Srpska to more decisively implement what SANU has outlined.

Precisely in this regard, the policies of the Troika (SDP, NIP, Naša stranka) bear responsibility because they gave him the opportunity to inflict greater damage on BiH, foolishly giving him power through state government, presenting him as some kind of European leader, all in the context of Bosnia and Herzegovina's path to the European Union, which almost no one mentions today. And what was given is not returned.

Through political compromises, they allowed Dodik to strengthen his position, not only in RS, but also in the entirety of BiH. Such a political course enabled Dodik to become a key factor on the state scene, even if it initially seemed that BiH's entry into the EU was a priority. By giving Dodik political power through a role in state institutions, political parties, perhaps out of a desire for stability, forgot the long-term consequences. Dodik thus became even more determined in achieving his goals, including further destabilization of the country.

In this regard, the administration of the United States of America certainly bears responsibility, as former US Ambassador Michael Murphy is effectively the ideological creator of the coalition currently in power in BiH.

And in previous years, Dodik's actions, or rather the fulfillment of goals on the path to the 'Serb world', were easily overlooked, and power shifted to Dodik's side. Again, orchestrated by the Americans. Dodik has used crisis provocation as a negotiation tactic before, and the current situation with verdicts and a crucial political moment for him can be interpreted as another attempt to achieve his own goal, even at the cost of destabilizing BiH.

This will be acknowledged by Christian Schwarz-Schilling, a German politician, diplomat, and former High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina, who in 2021 stated that a normal political situation does not prevail in Bosnia and Herzegovina, but rather that politics has entered an extremist phase and the division of the country.

In 2007, he tried to dismiss Milorad Dodik, but the Americans did not allow him to.

“Yes. I tried. I cannot officially state the explanation. They had problems with Kosovo, so they couldn't open a 'new construction site', so to speak. Then Dodik tried to secede RS through a referendum. I said, if he continues to talk about it – he will face personal consequences. During that campaign, he didn't mention it anymore. Eight days after the elections, he came with that issue. At that moment, I said – if he does it, he will face personal consequences, visa, visa regime, money flows, and so on,” Schwarz-Schilling recalled.

And from then until today, Dodik has absolutely increased his demands, just as he is doing now by attempting a coup, all in order to negotiate a favorable appellate court decision before the Court of BiH.

All these points indicate that the current crisis in BiH is not just a result of internal political disagreements, but also of complex international relations and long-term mistakes in political strategy.

In this context, the responsibility of the Troika, international actors, as well as Dodik himself, who used these circumstances to his advantage, should certainly be seriously considered in order to avoid future political and institutional instability in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Or, simply put, we do not learn from mistakes, for which the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina pays the price.