The Trojka never had the citizens' trust, and has now lost the trust of its mentors

Written for NAP by: Sifet Kukuruz, legal expert

Current events on the domestic political scene confirm that the recent visit of US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs James O'Brien to Bosnia and Herzegovina has not only changed many things but also disrupted them.

It has become evident that some local politicians have not understood, or have misunderstood, the messages O'Brien sent during his visit. Whether it is due to a lack of diplomatic experience or a general misunderstanding of politics as an intellectual activity is less important. However, what is important and cannot be ignored is the fact that the domestic political scene, after this visit, is increasingly less domestic and more international.

Namely, prior to the aforementioned visit, the main actors of political processes in BiH, embodied by Milorad Dodik, Dragan Čović, and the leaders of the Trojka, had already agreed on their own "roadmap" and had made significant progress in preparing for its implementation. However, it turned out that the "roadmap," painstakingly coordinated in Mostar, Konjic, Laktaši, Bakinci, and other lesser-known tourist destinations in BiH, was not, in itself, a sufficient guarantee of success.

Of course, this should not be surprising, as this "roadmap" was designed by the two main actors of the political crisis in BiH – Milorad Dodik and Dragan Čović, while the Trojka played the role of a politically completely disoriented "chance passerby," who, lacking political vision, maturity, and responsibility, agreed to all the demands of the aforementioned duo.

However, after O'Brien's visit, the agreements between Dragan Čović and Milorad Dodik, reached in the presence of the Trojka leaders, began to seriously crumble. The development of events in the last few days is reliable proof that the Trojka's own mentors have realized the harm of its existence and actions, both in relation to their own interests and in relation to the interests of the state of BiH, and that they were simply forced to take over the Trojka's role themselves.

Realizing that the Trojka was ready to deliver to Dodik and Čović even what could not be achieved by the policies they follow even in Dayton in 1995, the Trojka's mentors decided to bench them and enter the field themselves. Current political events confirm the curse that has plagued the Trojka since its violent political-legal establishment, or rather, imposition, which is that the Trojka essentially does not decide on anything, nor does it make any decisions, which was clearly visible in the Trojka's subservient attitude towards Dodik and Čović, as well as in the attitude of the mentors themselves towards the Trojka's actions.

The behavior of the Trojka politicians and their readiness to present the fulfillment of the wishes of proven political destructors as a new model of political action and constructive engagement on BiH's European path has made the danger completely real that Milorad Dodik and Dragan Čović, in addition to the financial and security sectors, will in a very short time be handed over the Presidency of BiH, the Constitutional Court of BiH, the Election Law of BiH, the Southern Interconnection, the Central Election Commission of BiH, and state property, which was clearly unacceptable to the Trojka's mentors.

To avert this danger, the Trojka's mentors were forced to make some decisions and prevent the Trojka from, in its political romanticism and adventurism, handing over the fate of the state of BiH and its citizens to those who have been openly working for more than a decade not only against the interests of the state of BiH but also for its destruction.

Although Milorad Dodik and Dragan Čović expressed enthusiasm for bringing the Trojka into power, which gave them a firm promise that under the slogan of political compromise they would be completely cooperative and politically servile, it now seems that the aforementioned duo could not have dreamed that instead of the Trojka, they would actually get its mentors as coalition partners, who are capable of making moves that will bring down all their dreams like a house of cards, and whose realization the Trojka leaders had fueled to such an extent over the past year that they even managed to bring Dodik and Čović to a state of awareness that their power was absolute and unlimited.

However, the development of events shows that instead of the peak of political power, both of them, along with the Trojka, could end up in the abyss of their own illusions and political delusions. With the latest decisions by the OHR and the US administration, the Trojka's mentors have prevented it from fulfilling the most important wishes of Milorad Dodik and Dragan Čović.

Thus, Dragan Čović will not get the Election Law of BiH tailored to his liking, legitimate representation in the Presidency of BiH, nor will he be able to realize his plan with the Southern Interconnection, and he will remain, along with Milorad Dodik, as well as the Trojka leaders, deprived of political control over the CEC.

At the same time, Milorad Dodik, in addition to not being able to prevent the adoption of a court ruling for non-compliance with OHR decisions, will not achieve his long-standing goal of subjugating the Constitutional Court of BiH, nor of eliminating the High Representative, nor will he receive state property. Also, the fourth delegate in the House of Peoples of BiH is seriously slipping from his grasp, and as a culmination of the emptying of his inflated political power, the adoption of the Resolution on the Genocide in Srebrenica in the UN General Assembly is imminent, which could have far-reaching consequences for the future of the entity of Rs, of which he is the president.

All this indicates that the project of politically-legally forcibly installing the Trojka into power, without democratic legitimacy, has resulted in serious consequences, not only for democracy and the rule of law in BiH but also for the credibility of the international community. In this regard, the shift in the behavior of High Representative Christian Schmidt, as well as the failed indignation of some European hypocrites regarding the latest amendments to the Election Law of BiH, should be understood.

In light of current political events, the only dilemma that arises is not whether, but when and under what circumstances the mentors will prevent the Trojka from remaining in power, given that it has proven to be a "Trojan horse" even in relation to its mentors, ready to give additional acceleration to the chariot that Dodik and Čović are pushing into the abyss.

In a very short period, circumstances have arisen that have convinced the Trojka's mentors that they must tie up the "Trojan horse" before the Trojka's political adventurism results in irreparable damage to both their interests and the interests of the state of BiH.

It is becoming evident that a new "political momentum" has emerged in the international order that can seriously influence the reshaping of the political scene in BiH. However, the question that arises by itself is – have the political forces that have democratic legitimacy, and which have been excluded from power, learned anything from their own experience and are they ready to respond to the numerous challenges that the state of BiH faces in the current political crisis.

Everything indicates that the political crisis that Dodik and Čović have created by using the Trojka as fuel is simultaneously a new chance for the state of BiH.