The "Trojka" coalition doesn't know where it's going since coming to power

(Patria) - When all is said and done, the "Trojka" coalition doesn't know where it's going since coming to power, says Jahja Muhasilović, professor of international relations and geopolitics at the International University of Sarajevo, for the Patria News Agency (NAP).

- The "Trojka" members have been without a vision from the start, and their primary goal was to seize power, and they were ready to do absolutely anything for it. Christian Schmidt, without whom they wouldn't have entered power, of course, pushed them. And foreign embassies also pushed them - Muhasilović points out.

The "Trojka's" sole and primary goal, he emphasizes once again, was to come to power. However, they had no idea what to do next.

- In the beginning, we could hear some of their empty phrases, which anyone who follows politics even a little knew were empty talk - that Dodik and Čović were cooperative, that they would offer some new model. But all of that quickly fell apart.

The "Trojka's" only vision at the moment is how to stay in power. Over time, they became aware that they can't do anything without Dodik and Čović, especially without the HDZ - Muhasilović tells us.

According to him, the leaders of the "Trojka," Nermin Nikšić, Elmedin Konaković, and Edin Forto, are now ready to do anything just to get the HDZ and SNSD to have mercy on them and keep them in power.

- And to stay in power, they will use various methods, engage in some fabricated quarrels with the SNSD, and curry favor with foreign embassies. Unfortunately for them, the American embassy is no longer as interested in that as it was before.

Now the British are acting somewhat more openly and aggressively behind the scenes. They have actually been involved in the entire process from the beginning, while the Americans were the forward players. However, with Murphy's departure, the winding down of various operations, USAID, etc., the Americans have shown that they will no longer be engaged in maintaining the "Trojka" in power or forming new coalitions to the same extent and scope - Muhasilović emphasizes.

He assesses that the "Trojka" is essentially surviving. He predicts that at the 2026 elections, Narod i pravda (NiP) and Naša stranka will most likely fare the worst, losing votes as they have already lost the popularity they once had. The SDP might also experience some decline, but it won't be as dramatic.

- Although the SDP is most responsible for everything that has happened, as it is the largest party in the "Trojka," which wouldn't exist without it, I think it will still manage to slip under the radar because it is not as openly targeted as NiP and Naša stranka - Muhasilović believes.

He notes that what many have been warning about for months is now proving true - the "Trojka" has handed over the entire security sector to its coalition partners or appointed inadequate and unqualified personnel to these positions.

- The Ministry of Security of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Intelligence-Security Agency (OSA) of BiH, the State Investigation and Protection Agency (SIPA) - these are all the most important security institutions of our country. And apart from the Ministry of Defense, they are actually the most relevant for security in BiH, and they have handed them over primarily to Serb cadres - Nešić, Ćulum...

Risto Zarić is essentially the shadow ruler in OSA BiH, also a Serb, so it can be safely said that they have handed over the security sector to the Serbs. And they had to do it, they were forced to make those rotten compromises because it was a prerequisite for the SNSD and HDZ to bring them into power. Unfortunately, they agreed to it.

In doing so, they convinced the people, believing them to be stupid and naive, that everything would turn out well. And we all know what Serb politics is like - they have other political goals and visions. And of course, they have started to behave as they always have, with the difference that they now have more levers in their hands through which they can blackmail and keep things under control.

The "Trojka" is most responsible for this. Apart from the ministries of foreign affairs and defense, which are indeed two important ministries, the "Trojka" settled for some crumbs and humiliated the entire pro-Bosnian policy, which ended up without the most vital functions now held by Serbs and Croats.

Now, even if they wanted to do something, which they don't have the will, energy, or vision for, the "Trojka" cannot do it alone because the HDZ and SNSD have made them absolute rulers in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Although some of us, and your media outlet, pointed out that these were cardinal mistakes that should not be made, they were so blinded by positions and the desire for power that they were not interested in any arguments - says Muhasilović.

He believes that BiH citizens will have to wait until the October 2026 elections for a change of government, as it will not happen before then, unless it is in the interest of the HDZ.

- Even the SNSD doesn't have a say in that. Only the HDZ can currently bring down the government at the state level, given that Borjana Krišto is the Chairperson of the Council of Ministers of BiH and that she is the only one who can dissolve its current composition.

So, unless it is in the HDZ's interest, I think we will have this government until October 2026. And until then, the "Trojka" will try in every way to mask its failure by quarreling with the SNSD, and even having certain friction with the HDZ, although all of that will be fabricated.

And these public performances, the "escalation" of relations with the HDZ and "disagreement" with Čović could intensify before the elections, but all of that would of course be in agreement between the "Trojka" leaders and Čović himself. And purely for the reason of attracting as many votes as possible.

It is definite that the "Trojka" will constantly try to create some artificial crises and awaken a kind of false enthusiasm in people, primarily through the media they control, in order to remain in power for the next four years - Muhasilović concluded in his interview with NAP.

(D.K.)