STEP DOWN, MR. SCHMIDT Gavran fell into his own trap, will Džudžan end up in a cage!?

By: Rasim Belko

Seven years after (now imprisoned) Fadil Novalić, the Southern Interconnection as an American interest in Bosnia and Herzegovina could find cracks in the BiH government system and flow irreversibly towards realization.

In short, in those seven years, we watched a scenario in which American policy, through strategic mistakes in creating the Bosnian pot, directly aided those who, from their tactical positions, directly undermined American interests.

Although between 2018 and 2022, Dragan Čović, as the top Croat from HDZ BiH, was the key lever that blocked the system in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina entity, the price of these blockades was paid by the Party of Democratic Action and its prime minister. The party was overthrown into opposition through violence against the rule of law and the constitution of an independent state, under a series of accusations, and many agree that the key reason was that they were not a good enough partner to the American administration.

Today, we see how wrong those conclusions were, because the same SDA, along with the rest of the opposition, is now reaping the consequences for which it was overthrown, even though it politically dominated the 2022 elections. On the other hand, Fadil Novalić, as the prime minister of the FBiH who was “uncooperative” with American partners, paid the price with his freedom, i.e., a prison sentence, which even the Constitutional Court of BiH says was imposed illegally, but it cannot change it, because there is a Gavran lurking around the corner who is overseeing everything.

And Gavran was in a good strategic position for almost his entire mandate. From his nest located in the heart of the country's capital, he controlled and managed socio-political developments in Bosnia and Herzegovina. With the help of Christian Schmidt, he overturned the rules, overthrew SDA, convicted Novalić, and installed a project he largely created himself into power, composed of political misfits burdened with dark records of cartels, mafia, corruption, and tenders.

In such a government, his best partner was the one because of whom he overthrew all of the above, the Herzegovinian mythical being better known as Džudžan, or Dragan Čović. However, Gavran went too far, and Džudžan thought he could get away with anything. He became arrogant enough to become an obstacle to the American interest that Secretary of State Antony Blinken clearly underlined in his letter to the head of BiH diplomacy.
And here we come to the resolution, which makes it clear that Christian Schmidt must step down from the position of High Representative. He proved to be diplomatically inept enough to be a pawn in Gavran's hands. If we know that with such a burden, Schmidt is also burdened with serious political-diplomatic connections to Zagreb, it is clear that there is not even a percentage of credibility left that the High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina should have. And I don't think it's necessary to list all the bad things Schmidt has done since he set foot in BiH. Therefore, Treten Sie ab, Herr Schmidt!

Because Gavran, or to be clearer, Michael Murphy, will be leaving in a few days or months, and a dusty office awaits him in the US as punishment for playing with American interests and reputation. Perhaps they were too patient in Washington, and they probably wanted to avoid the diplomatic embarrassment of recalling an ambassador who formed a government with those he knew were burdened with corruption, mafia, cartels, and secession in a Balkan country.

Gavran tripped over the foundations of his own traps, and today he was forced to sit down dejectedly with those he overthrew and those he did not allow to be in power. And they met him halfway, which is a much harder option for Gavran.

And while Gavran was seeking help from SDA, Democratic Front, Party of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and NES, Džudžan wisely remained silent. Because Džudžan is wiser than a fox. He is aware that he made a key strategic mistake – he thought Murphy would last forever.

That's why Gavran didn't invite him, sending him a message that he was gravely mistaken when he thought he would be an angel in white. Therefore, it is only a matter of time, not possibility, when Džudžan will end up in a cage.

And indeed, this Herzegovinian wise man has been selling what is not his for too long to domestic and international actors. It remains unclear whether the cage will be in the form of a blacklist or the same cell where Fadil is today. And there are rumors, I don't know if they are true, that Gavran also visited those cells in Vojkovići and looked for information. Maybe he was looking for the best place to put Džudžan, who knows.

At the end of the day, Bosnia and Herzegovina can breathe a sigh of relief. Because it is clear to both the ravens and the sparrows on the branch today that the decisions of American and European partners in Bosnia and Herzegovina have been catastrophic. It is equally clear that Schmidt lacks the credibility to remain High Representative. The problem of Gavran and Džudžan is even clearer. And the best thing of all is that American gas is coming, so the time is near when we can slowly shed the energy shackles of the Siberian bear.

And all of this is a consequence of Gavran's critically bad decisions from Marijin Dvor. But, in Bosnia, whoever digs a pit for another falls into it themselves. Especially when we know there is gas in the pit, then it's trouble, isn't it, Gavran!