VICTORY IS HARD-WON: Anyone who agrees to Dodik's three demands for state government also agrees to the division of BiH!

By Rasim Belko

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Although the preliminary results of the General Elections mathematically indicate that forming government at the state level without Milorad Dodik's SNSD is possible, albeit with difficulties in passing laws in the House of Peoples, it is much more realistic and likely that this party will still be part of the Council of Ministers of BiH and the parliamentary majority. Primarily due to the political agreement with HDZ BiH, which makes them a strong bloc factor at the state level.

However, if the initial demands of Milorad Dodik, which he is presenting to potential future partners at the state level, are anything to go by, forming the government could be another saga like those we have witnessed in the past. Those who dare to be partners, even out of necessity for the HDZ-SNSD bloc, will hardly dare to fulfill what Dodik demands.

And, according to the old, well-tried principle, Dodik will seek three things that are very dangerous for the state, around which discussions have been raging for months. During the week, the SNSD president, speaking on a local television in RS, said: "Without three things, there will be no formation of government at the BiH level. These are the gas pipeline under the Drina, the airport in Trebinje, and the Buk Bijela hydropower project on the Drina River." Aware of his strength within the administrative unit whose president he will be, Dodik announces the formation of entity government within two months, and an attempt to form a government of national unity in the smaller BiH entity. 

The approach he has announced is already an overture to institutional chaos at the state and Federation of BiH entity levels. In the FBiH, we expect a very uncertain struggle to create a parliamentary majority, where many are already jumping the gun, writing off some. For example, both Dragan Čović's HDZ and Elmedin Konaković's NIP have ruled out cooperation with Željko Komšić's Democratic Front. In this constellation of forces, and with NIP's clear animosity towards SDA, we are entering a labyrinth of complications called institutional chaos. On top of all this, nominations for the head of the Council of Ministers, and key figures in state and federal government, will come later. There is no doubt that, following Dodik's example, Čović will also present maximalist political invoices, so the question is whether there are those who are willing to fulfill what is being asked. Because, satisfying the demands of Dodik and Čović has one clearly visible end – the final division of the country and the extinguishing of its sovereignty by introducing Serbia from the Drina to Trebinje.

Vae victori, as the Latins would say. Because, no matter how much the Sarajevo-based parties target SDA as a political object to be removed from BiH institutions by establishing a new government, what HDZ and SNSD will present as a bill could be fatal for those parties. SDA could suffer a similar fate, although this party is the only one with a long enough political life where continuity involves turmoil and struggle against anti-state policies. But neither SDA nor those who want to remove it should overlook that fulfilling even one of Dodik's demands, primarily, can mean the end of this country's statehood. Therefore, in essence, the gravity that holds them around the idea of Bosnia and Herzegovina within its borders and statehood must be stronger than all vanities, egoistic attitudes, and disagreements.

Just to remind them, the planned airport in Trebinje is a well-packaged plan conceived in Moscow, implemented by Belgrade, and carried out by contractors in Laktaši. It is actually an airport that will serve Moscow and Belgrade in a new geostrategic rearrangement, because besides its proximity to the Adriatic, it would penetrate quite deeply into the territory of a NATO partner with aspirations for membership, and be too close to two NATO member states. This is a project for which a major struggle is already underway.

Just like the Buk Bijela project, for which the Constitutional Court of BiH, it is clear, lacks the courage to rule, so everything revolves around the court, the state Concessions Commission, and back again. This is a project financed by Vučić that is supposed to provide Serbia with the much-desired energy independence in terms of electricity in the current moment. In the past years, billions have accumulated that Serbia owes BiH based on our water resources, and now through Dodik, they are trying to seize our hydropower potential within our borders. Whoever allows this will be akin to Fikret Abdić, who tried to help Milošević and Karadžić commit genocide in the Bihać region by betraying his relatives, neighbors, and compatriots.

The story of the gas pipeline under the Drina began with the meeting between Dodik and the Chairman of the Management Board and CEO of Gazprom, Alexey Miller, when a roadmap was agreed upon, but Šefik Džaferović and Željko Komšić blocked it in the BiH Presidency. Immediately after that session, Dodik announced blockades of other projects and made it known that he would block all processes until Russia's plans, which he must realize, were fulfilled. He received significant support in this from media controlled by Dragan Čović, who falsely advocates for the EU and NATO path, while striving to fulfill Putin's tasks for Dodik.

In the current political and constitutional order, the formation of state government has never been straightforward, but given that the projects and plans for the division of Bosnia and Herzegovina have entered their final phase, Dodik's determination to block everything in order to fulfill his task is evident.

Those who waved state flags in pre-election platforms and videos, who said this is the country of all of us, who swore by patriotism, must understand that the time for promises ended on October 2nd, and that the time has come to switch from elegant suits to uniforms, because arguably the most important fight for the defense of Bosnia and Herzegovina is about to begin. Any disagreement on this issue will be an opportunity to tear and divide the country. In that case, all those who have responsibility will be clearly and loudly declared traitors. And there is only one place for traitors.

At the same time, these pro-Bosnian, pro-Bosniak, or whatever they wish to call themselves, must finally understand that what the international community proposes and recommends to us is not always good for us. The question is, in fact, whether it ever is. Those who did not learn from Schmidt will not learn from Dodik. So, be smart!