Increasingly warmer in the coming days, with a transient and short-lived cooling with rain and snow at the end of the week

By: Nedim Sladić

A high-pressure field centered over central Europe will support stable weather conditions in our region over the next three days.
On Thursday, atmospheric pressure will begin to drop, establishing a gradient between lower pressure in the northwest and higher pressure in the far southeast of the country, serving as a prelude to a transient cooling that will arrive from western Europe as part of a Genoa cyclone late Friday, accompanied by an influx of warmer air in a southwesterly flow.

Naturally, as is typical with cyclones arriving from the west, we will first be on the warmer side of the cyclone within a stronger southerly wind. On Friday evening, when the cyclone moves further east and enters the Adriatic, we will shift into the cold sector, causing a sharp drop in temperatures and a shift in wind direction from southerly to northerly. This will bring a more significant cooling, locally by more than 10 degrees.

Monday brings plenty of sunny and average weather for February in the western half of the country, while the east will see partly cloudy conditions in the morning with the dissipation of remaining high cloudiness by noon, leaving the rest of the day mostly clear. No precipitation is expected, as we will be near the center of the anticyclone. Wind, light to moderate, from the north and northeast. In the evening in Krajina, and during the first part of Tuesday in the rest of the country, the wind will shift to a light southeasterly (jugo).

Morning temperatures, due to clear skies and snow cover in some areas, as well as in the mountains and plateaus of central Bosnia, will be very low, ranging from -11 to -5 degrees Celsius, in the rest of Bosnia from -5 to -1 degree, and in Herzegovina from -1 to 5 degrees. Daily highs from 4 to 8 degrees, in Herzegovina from 8 to 13 degrees.

Similar weather conditions will persist on Tuesday and Wednesday. With mostly sunny weather, temperatures, both daily and morning, will rise.

On Tuesday, morning temperatures will range from -4 to 3 degrees, in Herzegovina from 3 to 8 degrees. Daily highs from 7 to 11 degrees, in Herzegovina from 11 to 16 degrees.

On Wednesday, the only difference will be a slight daytime development of cloudiness. Morning temperatures from 0 to 5 degrees, in Herzegovina from 6 to 10 degrees, and daily highs from 8 to 13 degrees, in the northwest of the country and Herzegovina from 12 to 16 degrees.

The anticyclonic field that supported stable weather conditions will begin to destabilize towards the end of the workweek as atmospheric pressure drops.

On Thursday, there will be an influx of even warmer air from southern Europe. This will also be a kind of peak or climax of warmth. Thursday will remain mostly sunny in the first part of the day over most of the country, with gradual but slight cloudiness in Krajina already in the first part of the day. As we will be far from the frontal disturbance, it will only involve high, transparent cloudiness that will not bring precipitation. Since atmospheric pressure will be higher in the east, sunny and relatively warm weather will persist there the longest. In the afternoon, the western, northwestern, and northern parts of the country will be partly to fully cloudy, but it will remain dry. As the frontal disturbance approaches our region, towards the end of the day from the west and northwest, stronger cloudiness will develop in the northwest of the country, and in Krajina, primarily around Bihać, and in the north of the country, during the transition from Thursday to Friday, waves of short-lived rain or light rain showers are expected. Precipitation amounts will not exceed 3 liters per square meter.

Wind initially light over most of the country, from the south and southeast, in Krajina moderate from the morning, strengthening to moderate to moderately strong as the day progresses, and becoming strong with occasional gusts by the end of the day. In the rest of the country, strengthening of the southeasterly wind is expected by the end of the day, when it will be moderate in places, with strong gusts. Morning temperatures from 3 to 7 degrees, in Herzegovina from 6 to 11 degrees, and in Krajina from 11 to 14 degrees. Daily highs from 11 to 16, in Herzegovina from 14 to 18 degrees.

Friday will, by all accounts, be the most interesting from a meteorological perspective. Around midday Friday, the aforementioned frontal disturbance will enter the Adriatic, causing a gradual rise in pressure and a shift in wind direction from southwesterly to northeasterly. In the morning, the south, north, and northwest of the country will be mostly cloudy with occasional light rain or showers, while the rest of the country will see partly cloudy weather. Partly clear skies are possible in the first part of the day in the far east and northeast of the country, primarily along the border with Serbia. Light precipitation with showers and a moderate drop in temperature will affect Krajina and the northern part of the country by morning, spreading to areas up to Zenica by the end of the day, and extending towards the east of the country in the evening. With the temperature drop, locally by more than 10 degrees, at altitudes above 700 meters above sea level, rain is expected to transition into sleet and then very quickly into snow during the transition from Friday to the first part of Saturday, primarily in the central, northeastern, and eastern parts of the country. At the same time, in Krajina, gradual clearing is expected in the early hours of Saturday, as the ridge of the central European anticyclone begins to strengthen. Precipitation amounts from 2 to 13 liters, in the south from 9 to 21 liters per square meter. In lowland areas where snow falls, expected accumulation of 1 to 5 cm, in the mountains locally over 10 cm. Wind, moderate to strong, in Krajina from the northwest and north, in the rest of the country until the cooling, moderate and strong, occasionally gusty, from the south and southeast, with gusts up to 50 km/h. In the evening, with the entry into the colder sector of the cyclone, a transient moderate to strong northerly and northeasterly wind will blow. Morning temperatures from 7 to 14 degrees, in Krajina from 3 to 6 degrees. Daily highs in the range of 11 to 18 degrees, while those in Krajina will not change significantly compared to morning values. In the evening, with the passage of the front over our region, there will be a transient cooling.

Saturday brings partly to mostly sunny weather to Krajina, parts of Herzegovina, and the northwest of the country, while the east of the country will have fully cloudy weather with partial clearing. Wind, in the first part of the day, moderate, from the northeast and east, in Herzegovina a strong bora and tramontana wind, weakening to light to moderate by midday. In the evening, the wind will completely lose strength and shift to a southeasterly (jugo), first in Krajina.

Temperatures ranging from -5 to 4 degrees, daily highs from 3 to 7 degrees in the eastern part of the country, and from 8 to 12 degrees in the western part of the country and Herzegovina.

Sunday brings plenty of sunny weather. Temperatures will rise again in line with the light southerly wind, sunny weather, and influx of warmer air.