Experts Warned: ISIL Could Not Have Emerged Without Support from Major Powers

In March 2011, the war in Syria broke out, and many believed that Bashar al-Assad would be quickly overthrown like many other leaders during the Arab Spring. However, that did not happen. Assad is still in power. The director of the International Institute for Middle Eastern and Balkan Studies from Ljubljana, Zijad Bećirović, analyzed the current situation in Syria in the magazine Global on BHT1, explaining why both Turkey and Syria benefit from the existence of ISIL, how the West supported IS, and why it is important for Russia that the West gets involved in the destruction of ISIL.

- The Islamic State is strong and holds territories, has the support of Sunnis in both Iraq and Syria, uses military tactics that are a combination of guerrilla and frontal warfare, does not hold territory at any cost, but withdraws and consolidates forces on another front, so after the capture of Tikrit by the Iraqi government, they took the town of Ramadi, 110 kilometers from Baghdad. That means they immediately responded to the moves of the Iraqi government – explains Bećirović the strategy of ISIL warfare, reports the Bosnian news agency Patria.

The situation is complicated, says this Middle East expert. Rebel groups are fighting each other, and any military intervention from outside is almost impossible under such conditions. When it comes to the regime of Bashar al-Assad itself, it is quite stable in the territory it controls. That is, he says, actually a minimal territory that is being used to create - sometime in the future - an Alawite state if Syria falls apart.

Asked whether Putin's initiative to create an alliance between the West and Assad in the fight against ISIL is realistic, Bećirović says that the initiative is likely primarily because Putin is using the Syrian crisis for two goals: to return to the international scene after isolation and imposed sanctions due to the war in Ukraine, and to protect his military and political, geopolitical interests, i.e., the military port of Tartus, which is a Russian military base on the Syrian coast, and in the event of Syria's disintegration, to lead to the proclamation of an independent Alawite state on the Syrian coast.

- Putin knows very well that ISIL will pose a threat to Russia in the future, and not to America in this period, and that is why he wants to gather all forces to deal with ISIL, and that is dealing with a future opponent of his, and this is a preventive action by Vladimir Putin and Russia, while at the same time Putin seeks to protect his political interest and his allies such as the regime of Bashar al-Assad – believes Bećirović, reports Patria.

Three years ago, Russia was ready to discuss the future of Syria without Assad, but then the West did not want to cooperate with Moscow. The consequence is a large refugee crisis, with more than 200,000 dead in Syria. Asked whether the West missed a solution then and is now dealing with the consequences of that crisis, Bećirović says that the West missed many solutions, not only when it comes to the Middle East.

- We can also recall the crisis that arose from the breakup of Yugoslavia. How long did it take the West to find a solution. The West was late when it comes to Syria, and the Middle East in general, but the West also has its strategic interests there, because simply the Islamic State did not arise on its own, it could not have emerged without the will of certain major powers or, I would say, the support of those powers, because it now functions at full capacity, perhaps even better than some neighboring states – says Bećirović, adding that now they are trying to save what can be saved.

- The West is trying to protect its interests, including the interests of neighboring countries, primarily Saudi Arabia and Israel. Russia is a much more important factor in the Middle East than in global relations, so by protecting its interests, it also protects the Assad regime – says Bećirović.

Regarding Turkey's role in the fight against ISIL, Bećirović explains that Turkey tacitly supports ISIL because it needs ISIL as a counterbalance to the PKK party and the Kurds in Syria, who are favorites of America, Russia, and even Assad himself, and therefore it is not in its interest for ISIL to be destroyed until Turkey positions itself in Syria itself. However, such a stance by Turkey also suits the regime of Bashar al-Assad, because as long as ISIL exists, his regime is important to both the West and its allies, and constantly to Russia, reports Patria.