What will Putin charge for a bad performance at the Security Council: Will Vučić have to set fire and terrorize Bosnia and Kosovo?

By: Rasim Belko @rasimbelko

The political nor diplomatic capacities of the Russian Federation are not so dulled and worn out that the Kremlin could not have predicted that the initiated discussion about Bosnia and Herzegovina at the UN Security Council would be a kind of fiasco for that world power.

On the contrary, I am sure they predicted and expected it, because unlike those for whom they convened the discussion, they build their strategy of politics, diplomacy, and influence on different and long-term foundations.

And the fiasco did not happen because Željka Cvijanović, in her personal capacity, showed the full extent of her ignorance and hypocrisy, but because Željka, Serbia, and Russia were faced with interlocutors who did not learn civilizational values from Milorad Dodik. True, the representative of China, for whom Bosnia and Herzegovina is composed of entities and a district, stood with them.

All other interlocutors burned the illusions of a brilliant performance and success of the Serbian-Russian story, and it was quite clear from the fact that the media from Serbia and Banja Luka almost had no complete report from the Security Council.

However, the fact that Aleksandar Vučić bought the readiness of the Russian Federation to stake its credibility before the UNSC, even though it failed, does not mean that he will not have to pay the bill. I am convinced that the invoice will arrive quite quickly, and the invoice will read - Russian interests in the Balkans and Europe.

The attempt to desecrate the moral intention of adopting the resolution on the commemoration of the genocide in Srebrenica before the UN Security Council will probably cost Vučić the possibility of playing a dual role in the medium political term. That is, the story of Serbia's neutrality, which wants to join Europe under the banner of partnership with Russia, could soon be thwarted. The truth is that it depends on how timely and effectively the West sees through that story.

What does not depend on either Vučić or the West is the invoice concerning Russia's interests, which will reach official Belgrade very soon. I am quite sure that Putin is waiting for an opportunity to resolve the issue of the aggression he launched against Ukraine at the negotiating table.

Israel's aggression against Palestine has freed up significant room for maneuver for him, not only in diplomacy but also on the battlefield, and it is slowly becoming clear that the cemented lines of demarcation will be difficult to move.

Therefore, Putin will ask Vučić to repay the debt by raising tensions, security provocations, and very possibly serious terrorism. Everything will, of course, depend on the development or calming of other crises on the geopolitical chessboard. If the negotiations between Israel and Hamas on a ceasefire are successful, it is not impossible that Vučić will have to mobilize forces for new terrorist missions. Like the one in the Kosovo municipality of Zvečan, in the village of Banjska. Vučić's terrorists were defeated, but there is no doubt that under Putin's pressure, they will have to try again.

Only this time with a stronger tone of incident. The space for this will undoubtedly be Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo. Because, we should not forget that Russian Ambassador Nebenzia stated before the Security Council that the destabilization of the Balkans is not excluded.

That destabilization has been going on for a long time, and now it could move into a more concrete phase where Vučić will have to pay the debt. This payment includes igniting ethnic fires in the fault lines of Bosnia and Herzegovina. In this context, we can also consider the propaganda recently disseminated by ATV about an alleged plan by Bosniaks to attack Potočari, attributing it all to Serbs. The source of ATV, as they claim, is someone from a police agency, and in this context, we must not forget that the director of SIPA, Darko Ćulum, visited the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Serbia a few days ago. Ćulum is Dodik's appointee, and the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Serbia, like everything else in that country, is Vučić's.

Every spark in the Balkans since the nineties has automatically meant directing Western attention to our region. And that is a serious trump card in Putin's sleeve for his aggressive policy, allowing him to dictate the pace and demands on the Ukrainian battlefield and possibly in peace negotiations.

The fact is that Vučić, Dodik, and Patriarch Porfirije postponed the all-Serbian assembly until the adoption of the resolution on the genocide in Srebrenica and announced action after that. It is not impossible that at that very assembly, the decision will be made on when and where to provoke fires and raise tensions in order to pay the bill to the great Russian brother.

Serbia has never been and could not remain indebted to Russia. Therefore, the coming months are actually a real test for the West on the Balkan Peninsula. Because, if they allow Vučić to pay the bill, it is clear that they will unexpectedly open a new hotspot in Europe, which will negatively affect Western plans in Ukraine.

If they continue to allow Vučić to play both sides due to Belgrade's debt to Moscow, they risk much larger conflicts, which is a challenge for the West's already stretched policy and diplomacy.

The solution could be the political neutralization and removal of Vučić, starting with a shift in American policy towards official Belgrade. Because, without a debtor, there are no debts, and without debts, there is no fire that can ignite the Balkans. Otherwise, the Kremlin will play with white pieces and have a significant advantage."