SPC is the last bastion of Greater Serbian politics, Milošević was succeeded by Dodik

Director of the International Institute for Middle Eastern and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) Ljubljana, M.Sc. Zijad Bećirović, in an interview with the Patria News Agency, commented on the upcoming visit of Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vučić to our country, the armament of Serbia, the statements of the patriarch.... 

BEĆIROVIĆ: Cooperation with Vučić should continue, because he is the first leader in Serbia with whom some cooperation can be established regarding Bosnia and Herzegovina. If nothing else, mutual tensions can be reduced through protocol visits. Communication and cooperation are always welcome, especially when done in a, so to speak, friendly atmosphere, as happened in Sarajevo. Vučić, as a Serbian nationalist, will never give up on the set goals of Serbian politics, and there is no doubt about that.

PATRIA: In that regard, can Vučić be trusted, considering his previous statements and political orientation?

BEĆIROVIĆ: That is only a seemingly important question. Vučić, Dačić, and a part of Serbia's political establishment have only adapted to the current situation. They know very well how Milošević and a pleiad of Serbian politicians, who were indicted by the ICTY for the wars in the former common state, fared. They know that they suffered a military and political defeat in Kosovo and in the former SFRY. They know that the ICJ ruled that the NATO intervention was legitimate, but also that Serbia is the only country in the modern civilized world convicted based on the convention on the prevention and punishment of the crime of genocide. They also know that personally, they can always face the fate of their predecessors, but also that Serbia could lose Vojvodina and Sandžak, which they have also been warned about by Russia. Current Serbian politicians operate within the scope of what is possible, knowing that it is not the time for any Greater-state endeavors.

PATRIA: But during Vučić's visit to Sarajevo, the Serbian Patriarch made warmongering statements that Kosovo should be defended and then gathered Serbian politicians from RS. Does this have repercussions on the integrity of BiH?

BEĆIROVIĆ: It is time for someone in the SPC to also speak the words of the President of SANU, who said that Kosovo is lost forever. When they publicly acknowledge the existence of BiH within internationally recognized borders, as well as Bosniaks as a nation, from the SPC, it will be much, much easier for all Serbs in BiH, as well as in Serbia. Unfortunately, the SPC is the last bastion of Greater Serbian politics, which insists on war aims, which Slobodan Milošević tried to realize in the nineties of the last century.

The only question is who will agree to play the role of Slobodan Milošević for the needs of the SPC. For now, it is Milorad Dodik. And this gathering by the patriarch in Bijeljina is a message to Vučić that the SPC is on the side of those who are breaking up BiH through referendums and political sabotage, not those who are visiting Sarajevo, even if it is just a protocol visit.

PATRIA: But what is it that "drives" Vučić to play such a role in the region, even on some international level?

BEĆIROVIĆ: Vučić thinks best for his country and is aware of his country's position. German Mercedes has a larger annual budget than the state of Serbia. Vučić fears political consequences from the West, and due to internal relations, but sometimes external ones as well, he has to play with Russia too.

Personally, I think he will have a hard time enduring such a game, because sooner or later he will have to make a choice. Serbia's declaration of neutrality is a farce, because it must be accepted by states, and there is a procedure for recognizing neutrality, which all states from Switzerland to Austria have gone through. Serbian neutrality today obligates no one, except themselves.

PATRIA: Vučić's trip to Russia for weapons has shaken the region?

BEĆIROVIĆ: His trip to Russia for alleged weapons will only shake Serbia. Serbia does not need the fate of Syria. This casual talk of trips to Moscow by Vučić and Nikolić, as well as Dodik, is not good for anyone, least of all for Serbia. Russia's veto during the vote on the resolution for Srebrenica, at Serbia's urging, will be largely billed to Serbia. Flirting with Putin, especially regarding armaments, can have unforeseeable consequences for the Serbian people in Serbia, and especially in BiH. Why didn't Vučić go to Angela Merkel for weapons, if he didn't want to go to the Americans?

That trip to Russia is Vučić's marketing, which does not contribute to stability. The Dayton Agreement is clear, and any violation of the balance of military capabilities entails direct intervention by the signatory states of the Dayton Agreement, i.e., NATO. BiH must renew its military capabilities, and that is the only problem I currently see.

BiH's defense budget is consumptive, not developmental, and as far as I know, for more than a decade, BiH has not invested anything in the modernization of its armaments. Bosniak politicians should primarily take care of this. Of course, now is the time for BiH to get the "green light" from NATO in December for continued accession, and if Bosniak politicians miss this chance too, they will be solely to blame.

If Serbia and Russia had their way, BiH would not exist

PATRIA: It seems that Bosniak politics views developments in the region, especially in Serbia, favorably and relies on the international community to intervene, while, for example, "Dodik's referendum" is becoming increasingly likely, and Vučić does not know how Serbia would behave if RS declared secession?

BEĆIROVIĆ: Nevertheless, Western civilization stopped the war and politically saved the existence of BiH. Despite the omissions and hypocrisy from Western civilization, from embargoes to the denial of timely intervention. If Serbia and Russia had their way, BiH would not exist. Therefore, Bosniak and pro-Bosnian politics must align with Western civilization, i.e., primarily with the USA.

The daily flirtation of Dodik and Vučić with Putin is as dangerous as the lack of strong and clear ties of Bosniak and pro-Bosnian politics with the strongest states, especially with the USA. Personally, I hope and await the visit of the BiH Presidency to the USA to meet with the President of the USA. Surely, BiH diplomats and numerous cabinet lobbyists are capable of organizing that, and the current US policy should also look more favorably upon the strongest Bosniak political parties and individuals.

Regarding Vučić's statements, regardless of the "shoes" he is in, Serbian, Russian, German, Dodik's, it will be recorded that by advocating for the halting of the British resolution at the UN and with his statements, he entered the annals of anti-civilizational acts, because denying the genocide in Srebrenica is an anti-civilizational act. At a time not only of international judgments, but when almost all world parliaments, led by the European Parliament, are adopting declarations on the genocide in Srebrenica, Vučić is mobilizing Russia to stop a resolution at the UN that reminds the world community of the committed genocide in Srebrenica. In common parlance, people have nicknames for such anti-civilizational types.