SOA publishes report: Security risks in BiH and the region also mentioned

(Patria) - The Security and Intelligence Agency (SOA) of the Republic of Croatia published its report today, which discusses security challenges, risks, and the situation in Croatia, the region, Europe, and the world.

In its Public Report, SOA also writes about Bosnia and Herzegovina, in the context of the security and political situation in our region, as well as about the latest important processes in other countries.

- The southeastern neighborhood of the Republic of Croatia, i.e., the Western Balkans as this area is called in EU documents, is still burdened by numerous security, political, economic, and social challenges. All Western Balkan countries express their intention to join the European Union. Also, with the exception of Serbia, the Western Balkan countries have expressed their intention to join NATO. At the same time, other countries like Russia and China are trying to strengthen their influence in this area," it is stated at the beginning.

SOA assesses that this is still an area characterized by difficult economic conditions, with the prevalence of corruption and organized crime, political clientelism, and shortcomings in the rule of law.

- The societies of the southeastern neighborhood are also burdened by the phenomena of radical Islamist and nationalist forces, as well as difficulties in accessing Euro-Atlantic integration. Certain countries in the southeastern neighborhood continue to function with the active involvement of institutions and mechanisms of the international community. Such circumstances also open space for the activities of external actors, especially states whose interests and views do not align with the Euro-Atlantic perspective of this area, or whose interest is to slow down Euro-Atlantic integration in this region. In doing so, such actors also use intelligence and hybrid activities, the report states.

SOA assesses that several stabilization processes are taking place in the southeastern neighborhood of Croatia, which affect the overall political and security situation in the regional environment.

- The most important such processes are agreements on the internal functioning of Bosnia and Herzegovina and negotiations on the normalization of relations between Serbia and Kosovo. Both processes are underway with the active engagement of the international community. At the same time, the complex political situation in BiH is marked by stagnation in numerous processes, while Kosovo, after the elections in the fall of 2019, is also facing political instability," it is stated, as reported by Vijesti.

SOA agents believe that phenomena of Greater Serbian extremism are still present in certain countries, which manifest as denial of the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the Republic of Croatia, as well as other neighboring countries, such as Kosovo, BiH, and Montenegro.

- This extremism is publicly manifested through statements and gatherings of Greater Serbian extremist organizations, as well as the use of other public gatherings, where, along with extremist messages, Croatian state symbols are also destroyed. Greater Serbian extremism also promotes messages against the expansion of the European Union and NATO to Southeast Europe, while emphasizing loyalty to Russia."

It is further stated that religious and national extremism continues to burden the societies of the southeastern neighborhood countries.

- The radical interpretation of Islam is still present in the countries of the southeastern neighborhood. The existence of enclaves where a radical interpretation of Islam is practiced and where the laws and democratic order of the host country are not recognized represents a security risk. An additional security risk is the return of 'jihadists' from Syria and Iraq to their home countries, many of whom went to the battlefield precisely from these enclaves. These two phenomena could lead to an additional degree of radicalization and the spread of the radical interpretation of Islam, is the part that refers to BiH.

SOA also deals with the issue of the position of Croats in BiH, as well as their emigration for economic reasons.

- The political position of Croats in BiH is marked by the effort to fulfill all elements that make them a constituent people and to achieve full equality with the other two peoples, as foreseen by the BiH constitution. In addition to political circumstances, Croats in BiH are facing a trend of economic emigration, which also threatens their physical survival in BiH, and thus the multi-ethnic character of BiH, it is stated.

Regarding the part about illegal migrations, SOA assesses that the largest number of migrants on the Balkan route to the EU try to reach it via the territory of BiH.

SOA assesses that the security situation in Croatia is stable and that there are no indications or visible potential for significant destabilization of security conditions.

However, they emphasize that the greatest risk in terms of terrorist threat is posed by regional followers and sympathizers of Islamist terrorist organizations and returnees from Syria and Iraq.

It is also emphasized that transnational organized crime is strong in Southeast Europe (the so-called Balkan route) and remains the main route for bringing heroin into Europe, and is also very significant for marijuana smuggling.