Sladić: Above-average warm weather until the end of the week, cooling down for the weekend, but this is not the end of summer

Written by: Nedim SLADIĆ

In the next three to four days, temperatures in Bosnia and Herzegovina will be 4 to 6 degrees Celsius above the long-term average, which, combined with the above-average warm first half of September, will make it a very warm or even extremely warm month due to the significant deviations we had in the first and will have in the second decade of the month.

Even if the third decade of September ends with average values, which according to the first unofficial forecasts has a probability of 55-60 percent, this will certainly be one of the warmer Septembers in Sarajevo in the last fifteen years.

Although last year we broke national temperature records in mid-September and measured temperatures up to 40 degrees Celsius, this year September is significantly milder, but it wouldn't be like this if it weren't for the upper-level cyclone in the Ionian Sea, which has been significantly affecting the weather in our country for eight days now, manifesting as afternoon local and short-lived instabilities. If this cyclone had been absent, we would certainly have had stronger heatwaves.

WEATHER FORECAST FROM SEPTEMBER 14 TO 18

Wednesday, September 14

Morning and forenoon in Bosnia and Herzegovina will be mostly sunny. Midday will see more pronounced local development of daytime clouds, mainly in the central, southeastern, and eastern parts of Bosnia, as well as in Herzegovina, precisely due to the influence of the upper-level cyclone from Southern Europe, where short-lived local showers are locally expected. In the north, due to a slightly stronger influence of the Central European anticyclone, it will be mostly sunny and mostly dry. Wind remains weak, from the east and northeast. Above-average temperatures, morning temperatures mostly from 11 to 17 degrees Celsius, up to 22 degrees Celsius in the south. Highest daily temperatures from 27 to 32 degrees Celsius.

Thursday, September 15

Mostly sunny and very warm, often hot weather. Daytime will have little to moderate cloudiness. Afternoon instabilities, due to the weakening of the cyclone, will be absent in almost the entire country, with the highest probability for them being in mountainous areas. Wind, weak to moderate, initially from the east. During the day, the wind will turn to moderate southwest and west.

Morning temperatures from 13 to 17 degrees Celsius, up to 22 degrees Celsius in the south. Highest daily temperatures from 27 to 33 degrees Celsius.

Friday, September 16

Morning and part of the forenoon will be mostly sunny and warm with increasing cloudiness, primarily in the north and northwest of the country. As we will be on the verge of the cyclone, the afternoon will bring pre-frontal clouds, causing showers mainly in the western, northwestern, southwestern, and northern areas, while the far east of the country will remain dry for most of the day. Wind occasionally of moderate strength from the southwest and west. Morning temperatures from 14 to 18 degrees Celsius, up to 22 degrees Celsius in the south. Highest daily temperatures from 27 to 33 degrees Celsius.

Saturday, September 17

Moderate to mostly cloudy weather throughout the country and slightly cooler compared to yesterday. Afternoon will bring occasional light rain and short showers across the country, which will not be heavy. In the evening, from Saturday to Sunday night, as the warm sector moves further east, there will be an additional drop in temperature from the north. Wind, weak to moderate, south and southwest, turning to occasionally moderate northeast in the evening. Morning temperatures from 13 to 17 degrees Celsius, up to 22 degrees Celsius in the south.

Highest daily temperatures from 22 to 27 degrees Celsius, up to 30 degrees Celsius in the south and east of the country.

Sunday, September 18

Mostly cloudy with rain and colder compared to previous days. Wind, moderate, northeast and east. Morning temperatures from 11 to 15 degrees Celsius, up to 19 degrees Celsius in the south. Highest daily temperatures from 16 to 23 degrees Celsius, up to 26 degrees Celsius in the south. Temperatures will drop further in the evening.

 

SYNOPTICS

The Central European anticyclone with a high-pressure system over Germany is causing a period of above-average temperatures and continues to affect most of Central, Western, and Northern Europe, with warm air flowing in from the west. In the east and southeast, the low-pressure system centered in the Ionian Sea is slowly weakening, but still, in its eastern and southeastern flow, it occasionally sends short local and not very strong instabilities in weakened waves to Macedonia, Albania, southern Herzegovina, and central Bosnia. On Thursday, and especially on Friday, Bosnia and Herzegovina will experience a significant advection of extremely warm air masses, which will bring exceptionally warm and increasingly moist air in a moderate southwest flow from Africa, as a direct consequence of our region's position ahead of the warmer side of the cyclone.