Serwer at Krug 99 session: Failure of the international community could jeopardise the role of the OHR

(Patria) - Professor Daniel Serwer from Johns Hopkins University in Washington assessed that Zagreb and Belgrade want group rights and the constitutional provisions that protect them to prevail over individual rights, thereby ensuring the permanent retention of power for ethnic nationalists in Bosnia and Herzegovina, who are close to the interests of Croatia and Serbia.

He said this at the regular session of the Association of Independent Intellectuals Krug 99 on the topic "What are Serbia and Croatia trying to do in the Balkans?" held today in Sarajevo.

Serwer says that the primary regional factor is Belgrade, which is trying to create what is now called the "Serbian world." He claims that Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić wants to control the political destiny of Serbs in neighbouring countries, and that this includes not only Bosnia and Herzegovina but also Montenegro and Kosovo.

- In Bosnia and Herzegovina, Vučić has in RS President Milorad Dodik someone who is partly a proxy and partly a rival. Belgrade supports Dodik's efforts to separate Serbs from the Sarajevo authorities. But he will not want Dodik to fulfil his ambition of declaring independence - Serwer said.

He emphasised that this would put Serbia in a difficult position.

Unable to recognise the Republika Srpska for fear of European and American reactions, Vučić will not allow Dodik to outdo his ethnonationalism and demand the annexation of the Republika Srpska to Serbia - he said.

In addition, he added, Vučić is increasingly moving closer to Dodik as he increasingly moves in the orbit of Russia and China.

- Preventing successful democratic governance in BiH and obstructing its path to Europe are Vučić's goals. Dodik serves that purpose well, as long as he does not go the last mile - he said.

Speaking about Croatia, Serwer said that Zagreb's goal is not secession but a third entity.

- Zagreb wants to control all political representation of Croats within Bosnia and Herzegovina. The irony is that Bosnian Croats did not ask for a third entity in Dayton, because they achieved a better result: half of the Federation and one third of the state - he added.

Serwer says they failed to politically exploit that situation and are now trying to use the high representatives to achieve their maximalist political goals.

- His electoral decisions favoured Zagreb's ambitions. He ignored the decisions of the European Court of Human Rights that oppose group rights, such as Sejdić-Finci and the Kovačević case - he explained.

Serwer also said that at the same time, the High Representative became persona non grata with Milorad Dodik, advocating for Dodik's efforts to prevent Sarajevo's authority over the RS.

- The failure of the international community to effectively respond to that challenge risks undermining the role of the Office of the High Representative and ending any hope that it can play a constructive role in breaking the group rights that plague Bosnian politics - concluded Professor Serwer in his presentation.