Schmidt: Dodik is in a dead end, I wish him a good trip to Moscow

(Patria) - I wish Milorad Dodik a good trip to Moscow, stated High Representative Christian Schmidt in an interview for the Austrian magazine Profil, reports Politički.ba.

Milorad Dodik, president of Republika Srpska, has been flirting with the idea of that part seceding from BiH and denying state institutions and the Constitution for years. An arrest warrant has now been issued for Dodik, but the authorities do not want to execute it.

Any attempt to arrest Dodik will likely be met with resistance, possibly even from the Republika Srpska police. This could, in turn, trigger a dangerous spiral of violence, writes the magazine Profil, which also quotes Dodik's claims that Schmidt is to blame for everything.

According to Milorad Dodik, Christian Schmidt is the originator of the current escalation. Schmidt has been the High Representative of the international community in BiH since 2021. Previously, he was the German Minister of Agriculture (CSU).

Will there be a war in Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Schmidt: I am not afraid of an escalation of violence, but I see a legal escalation. We are in a real national crisis. Milorad Dodik wants a completely new constitution for Republika Srpska. This is a long-planned preparation for independence and possibly other scenarios that exist in the region.

Specifically, it concerns the possibility of forming an independent army of Republika Srpska. Likewise, the scenario of uniting Republika Srpska with Serbia, perhaps in a confederation.

More urgent than this scenario is the acute question of what will happen to Dodik, for whom there is a warrant from the BiH Prosecutor's Office, which Dodik does not recognize. If an attempt is made to arrest him, there is a danger of escalation with the Republika Srpska police. Who should arrest Dodik? Perhaps EUFOR, the EU soldiers who militarily secure peace in BiH?

Schmidt: State institutions are functioning. However, we must be wise and cautious. First, those responsible, Milorad Dodik is in a dead end.

Once again - who should arrest Dodik?

Schmidt: The competent institutions must deal with this issue. We will see what comes of it.

What remains of the state of BiH as a whole if its institutions cannot act throughout its territory? Are we seeing the end of BiH these days?

Schmidt: Of course, everyone knows that the situation could escalate quickly. But there is still enough common sense to say - I do not see a readiness for violence, even among those who want the secession of Republika Srpska.

Is Dodik bluffing?

Schmidt: No, it's not a bluff, it's an attempt to redraw borders peacefully. The question is, however, who would benefit from things escalating in BiH? It is all the more important that Dodik plans to fly to Moscow on Wednesday.

Do you think Dodik would return to Moscow, as rumored, if he really flies to Moscow?

Schmidt: An interesting question. We have noted that there is an EU member state that has apparently already considered escort protection.

You mean the Hungarian special forces who were recently in Republika Srpska. Viktor Orbán is a supporter of Dodik, both are considered Putin's men.

Schmidt: I don't know if Dodik plans to go anywhere. I would say - I wish him a good trip.

Would it be an option for Dodik to retreat to Moscow?

Schmidt: Nobody is interested in the situation escalating. There should be no winners and losers. My good friend, former Austrian Chancellor and Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg, once said: "You are too German and too little Balkan."

Of course, in Europe, we all think relatively rationally. But sometimes in the Balkans, there are things that defy rationality.

What do you mean by that?

Schmidt: It's difficult when someone overestimates themselves. I believe that many people in Republika Srpska do not necessarily support Dodik, but there is a certain dependence through employment in an inflated public service.

Dodik offered Serbs working for central government institutions the opportunity to leave and get jobs with the Republika Srpska authorities. But currently, there is hardly any interest. The strategy of bringing everyone to their side is not working. That's good news.

You are often insulted by Dodik and his supporters. Your German origin is caricatured and ridiculed. On the other hand, you often refer to the "Balkan mentality" and are not exactly restrained when it comes to clichés about alleged "Balkan irrationality".

Schmidt: Maybe I've become a bit Balkanized after all. I was well prepared, and my predecessors survived similar things. The accumulation of accusations that fall on me would certainly lead to resignations in Germany. Every second.

One might suspect that the lack of resignations is indeed a Balkan specialty. Just look at the US. Milorad Dodik, president of Republika Srpska, and US President Donald Trump have a lot in common - the way they speak, what they talk about, and how they perceive power.

Schmidt: You won't get me to compare Dodik to Trump. These are two different qualities.

Why exactly?

Schmidt: The President of the USA is the leader of the free world and the largest economy in the world. Milorad Dodik, in turn, governs a republic with perhaps 700,000 inhabitants and a gross domestic product roughly equivalent to that of Gelsenkirchen. And he is a man where it is unclear in whose hands he is. I mentioned Moscow earlier.

To this day, the US has never questioned the unity of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Are you sure Trump will stick to the current US policy towards BiH?

Schmidt: My understanding of the Trump administration's stance so far is that it tries to avoid provoking new conflicts as much as possible. And sometimes I hear critical and justified remarks directed at us Europeans, who should be dealing with the issue of the Western Balkans.

Should Europeans take care of the Western Balkans themselves?

Schmidt: In my opinion, Americans should stay here. They play a very important, pacifying role. The citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina see Americans as guarantors of peace.

You already mentioned Hungary. Orbán openly supports Dodik. How can Europe be united?

Schmidt: Europe is already moving forward together, despite everything. Bosnia and Herzegovina needs an EU perspective. Full membership is probably not imminent, but in the next five years, we should at least offer young people in this country some perspective. So that they emigrate less.

Even full EU membership would hardly change that, given the situation in other Eastern European EU member states.

Schmidt: For better times to begin in Bosnia and Herzegovina, a solid economic foundation and the rule of law are needed. And the overcoming of 19th-century nationalist ideas.

Your position is somewhat obsolete. As High Representative, you have no democratic legitimacy, but you can annul any law and parliamentary decision. Many in Bosnia and Herzegovina see your position as the cause of many problems in the country, partly because many politicians use you as an excuse.

Schmidt: If I could say with a clear conscience - everything is fine in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the structures are fine, maybe they argue, but they want to stay together, then I would say - it's really time to go. But that is not the case.

Can you understand why you are sometimes criticized for a certain colonial gesture?

Schmidt: I experience it completely differently. When I talk to people in Bosnia and Herzegovina, they almost always want to take selfies with me. And they have many ideas about what I should order, even in Republika Srpska, otherwise. I think outside the political bubble, many people think - he's not so bad after all.