Russian grounding of Dodik, now it's the West's turn

By Ernad Metaj

That episode is over, Dodik, as he claims, was at a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Unlike the talks with Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, there is no news on the official website of the Russian president about the meeting with Dodik. There are no pictures, no videos, and Dodik was in Russia for several days, giving the impression that he didn't even know the exact time of the reception with the great ally. From this, one can infer that the trip to Russia was another performance by Dodik, with which he wanted to present himself as a major player ready to poke the Western diplomats in the eye by going to their hated enemy in the midst of negotiations in BiH.

The only concrete thing Dodik claims is the agreement that RS will continue to receive gas at the current price. More expensive than for Serbia, from which, for example, Germany receives significantly cheaper gas from Russia. It is interesting that Dodik himself says that there was no talk of possible EU sanctions against him, but also that Russia stands behind every solution that is in accordance with the BiH Constitution. There is no public support for secessionist policy, which does not exclude the possibility that Dodik is a Russian pawn used by them to strengthen their position towards the West.

That Dodik's power is questionable could be inferred from the last public statement of the always measured SNSD state parliamentarian Lazar Prodanović, who clearly stated that BiH cannot be unitary, but also that the secession of RS is not possible. Prodanović only confirmed the thesis that has been circulating in the public for a long time, which is that fewer and fewer SNSD members are using the radical rhetoric of their party leader.

At least publicly, Dodik can no longer count on the support of HDZ in the desire to annul the law that prohibits the denial of genocide and war crimes. It turned out that such a policy is too expensive for Dragan Čović's image in Croatia, which is why the HDZ leader apologized to those he offended with his gesture.

Now Dodik is left to confirm his determination and strength in the NSRS, where a session on returning competencies to RS has been announced. The opposition is convinced that this will also be just another performance for the public, and the escape of the President of the NSRS, Nedeljko Čubrilović, from participating in such a session indicates that there is fear of Dodik's adventurism within the ruling coalition.

This certainly does not mean that the crisis in BiH is nearing its end, as the election campaign has already begun, and negotiations on the Election Law and amendments to the BiH Constitution will certainly be an important tool for collecting political points. Now it is the West's turn, whose indecisiveness has given Dodik a boost, but new winds from the United Kingdom and Germany leave less and less reason for Dodik to be optimistic that there will not be stronger pressure on him and the policy he represents.