Referendum and Calming Down: Possible Sanctions for Republika Srpska

By Sead Omeragić

Aleksandar Vučić and Tomislav Nikolić have scheduled consultations today regarding the decision of the PIC (Peace Implementation Council in BiH), which comprises 55 countries and organizations participating in the creation and maintenance of peace in BiH. Namely, the sharp tone used by the member states of the PIC Steering Board towards the referendum and the behavior of Milorad Dodik and the leadership of RS, along with Russia's traditional distancing, has worried the Serbian side.

And rightly so, because in just seven days, a new session will be held where the PIC Steering Board members will decide by majority vote, thus neutralizing Russia's stance.

It is clear that the fierce condemnation of the referendum and Dodik's policy will be repeated, and that after all this, the High Representative will be given a free hand to act according to his 'Bonn powers', as the supreme authority for interpreting the civilian part of the Dayton mythical agreement. This will be disastrous for a risky and questionable political option, such as Dodik's gamble with the referendum.

Therefore, Vučić's talk about destabilizing the region becomes meaningless, and his alleged concerns for peace are completely unfounded. The PIC, with its stance, has clearly determined who is destabilizing the region and definitively identified the culprit for attempts at legal destruction in BiH.

Vučić will no longer be able to simultaneously convene ambassadors and warn them about the destabilization of the region, because he has been definitively told that everything is clear in this case. He will, furthermore, have to unconditionally respect the legal decisions of the Peace Implementation Council.

His colleague from the government, Ivica Dačić, will be able to continue repeating radical views, but Serbia's real policy towards BiH will unfold along completely different, calmer paths. The media in Serbia will behave in an equally inflammatory manner, but those lessons have already been learned and thwarted.

The Peace Implementation Council has a clearly developed system by which it operates, and no surprises will be possible there.

What's next? The National Assembly of RS will negate the decision of the Constitutional Court of BiH to postpone the referendum, mostly because such a development suits the opposition in RS on the eve of the elections. This is a paradox: what Milorad Dodik is pushing is definitively turning against him.

If the National Assembly of RS dares to make such a decision, sanctions against RS will likely follow, which they will not be able to sustain for even a month or two. It is unlikely that Aleksandar Vučić will try to get involved in all this, as his government depends precisely on the next, very imminent IMF arrangement.