The first season of the project to remove Dodik is over, the second half is coming

By Branko Perić

The first season of the political-legal project to remove Milorad Dodik is over. In the second, we will see the holding of elections for the president of Republika Srpska, Dodik's new political role, and some other incidental political scandals.

The first-instance verdict sentencing Dodik to one year in prison, along with the security measure of prohibiting him from holding political office for six years, has been confirmed by the decision of the Appellate Division of the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

With the rendering of the second-instance decision, the criminal proceedings have been legally concluded. Milorad Dodik is no longer the president of Republika Srpska. This is a consequence of a legally binding court decision.

Given that this is a legal consequence of a legally binding court decision, the Central Election Commission (CEC) will state that his mandate has ceased based on the decision of the Court of BiH from the date it was rendered.

All other CEC decisions will concern the announcement and conduct of early elections for the president of Republika Srpska and will not apply to Milorad Dodik.

Two questions cause public confusion. The first, and in my opinion the most important, concerns the possibility of Dodik holding the position of SNSD president. There would be no confusion if the High Representative Christian Schmidt had not banned the financing of SNSD and the United Srpska from budget funds at all levels at the beginning of the year.

If he had not done so, Dodik could not have held the position of SNSD president because the party is partially financed from budget funds. It seems that Schmidt did Dodik a favor by allowing him to hold a political office. Whether it was an agreement or a devil's deal – we can only guess.

However, the position of legal experts that after Schmidt's decision, the condition for prohibiting Dodik from holding the position of president of his political party has not been met should be taken with a reservation. Schmidt's intention was to sanction political entities, and such political sanctioning measures are not permanent. They can be revoked under conditions that are not predictable and certain in advance.

Therefore, the prohibition of performing party functions should be considered in accordance with the positive legislation in Bosnia and Herzegovina, according to which the prohibition of performing public functions based on a criminal conviction is assessed based on legally established rights. Those rights have not been suspended by the High Representative's decision. Therefore, there could be interpretations that Dodik will still not be able to hold the position of SNSD president.

Of course, he will be elected to that position regardless of what legal experts and Christian Schmidt think about it. Schmidt will probably annul that election, but it remains unclear who will implement such a decision by Schmidt and how.

It is not of essential importance whether Dodik will be the president of SNSD. Even without that position, he will *de facto* be the party leader and president of everything. Simply put, he has been that throughout his political career. In all institutions and at all levels of public authority in Republika Srpska and at the state level, there are Dodik's clones.

The little Dodiks will try their best to surpass Dodik at the cost of their own and collective suffering. Sanja Vulić publicly marked this submissive attitude and loyalty to the leader with a panegyric: "Dodik is my God!" Indeed, a leader as a deity is the political reality of Republika Srpska. He does not need formal legitimization. He is the supreme deity to whom one must bow and offer sacrifices.

The second question concerns taking over the position of the president of Republika Srpska, i.e., whether one of the two vice-presidents can take over the position of the president of Republika Srpska until a new president is elected and under what procedure one of them could be elected.

A legal opinion has appeared in the public that a deputy should replace the president, but there was no clear argumentation for this. According to the Constitution of Republika Srpska, deputies do not replace the president; rather, the president transfers authority to them only in case of temporary inability to perform the presidential duties.

In this specific case, it is not about Dodik's temporary inability but about the legal consequence of a criminal conviction. Therefore, the deputies would not be able to replace the president of Republika Srpska until a new president is elected.

The most logical legal solution could be for the National Assembly, as the supreme legislative body, to elect an acting president until a new president is elected.

Dodik has publicly threatened that there will be no elections for president. He even called on institutions to prevent it. Such threats will again lead Dodik to the prosecutor's office, but this time there will be no one to drive him there. Even if an adventure of obstructing the elections were to be undertaken, the elections could be conducted based on the results from polling stations outside Republika Srpska and abroad. One can assume what they will be like and who will vote.

From the top of Dodik's SNSD, a call was sent to the opposition these days to form a government of national unity. It was the cry of the desperate. People who have continuously and persistently shattered national unity and accused the opposition of treason have reached a point where they are asking "traitors" for support and help.

This is the state to which the arrogant rule of a one-party dictatorship, conceived and brought to absurdity by one man, has fallen. Its collapse was inevitable. One should not be surprised by this. All dictatorships have disappeared in the natural process of self-destruction.

No one should rejoice at such an outcome for Dodik. It will only deepen the crisis and distance Bosnia and Herzegovina from the European path, if it still exists at all. There are no announcements of a change in the vector of political action from Dodik's circle. Nor from the opposite side. The breaking of Dodik will continue with the tightening of the noose.

The focus will shift to state judiciary. Investigations that were opened more than ten years ago are now on the agenda.