US Intelligence Assessment: Dodik Could Initiate RS Secession, Leading to Conflict with Bosniaks

Milorad Dodik could initiate the secession process of Republika Srpska in 2024, which would lead to conflict in Bosnia and Herzegovina, according to the US Intelligence Community Assessment.

The document, which assesses global threats, dedicates a single paragraph to Bosnia and Herzegovina, directly stating the risk of conflict in BiH, Istraga reported.

“Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik is taking provocative steps to neutralize international oversight in Bosnia and Herzegovina and secure de facto secession for his Republika Srpska. His actions could prompt Bosniak leaders to strengthen their own capabilities to protect their interests, potentially leading to violent conflict that could overwhelm peacekeeping forces,” the document states.

Simply put, US intelligence assesses that there is a risk of Dodik initiating the secession of RS, to which Bosniaks would respond, leading to severe conflict in BiH. In such a scenario, the international EUFOR forces would be overwhelmed.

We remind you that the President of RS has been threatening the secession of Republika Srpska for years. Milorad Dodik regularly receives support for his policies from Russian President Vladimir Putin. This report by the US services was prepared in early February. Fifteen days later, the President of RS, Milorad Dodik, visited Belarus and Russia, where he met with Putin. During the meeting, the Russian President awarded Milorad Dodik the Order of Alexander Nevsky.

“We confirm the good relations that Srpska has and nurtures with the Russian state and with you. What we are doing in the current circumstances is rejecting any possibility of joining the Western sanctions against Russia,” Dodik told Putin at the meeting, emphasizing that he will not yield to Western sanctions and pressure to impose sanctions on Russia, for which RS will not cast its vote. Dodik told Putin that he receives particular support in these pressures from the West from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić.

“However, the entire leadership of RS, the Prime Minister, the Speaker of the National Assembly, the Serb member of the Presidency of BiH, and I, have all been sanctioned by the US and the UK. Thanks to our friends in the EU, Europe has not imposed the same sanctions on us,” said Dodik, guided, as he said, by the folk saying, “what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger.”