Last warning, new gas problems on the horizon

Piše: Almir Bečarević

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In a series of articles from March 2021, I announced a drastic increase in the Russian price of natural gas. The announcement also referred to the increase in exchange prices of natural gas. I also announced that there would be problems with the certification of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, and that process is currently suspended. Currently, i.e., for weeks, huge amounts of gas have been withdrawn from Europe's underground storage, and winter has not even begun. 

I will give the example of Hungary, which currently bases half of its gas consumption on gas from underground storage along with gas from its own production. From storage, they withdraw 852,824 Sm3 per hour, from their own production 170,514 Sm3 per hour, which is over one million Sm3 per hour. Via Ukraine, they receive 529,395 Sm3 per hour, and from the TurkStream only 262,565 Sm3 per hour. In 24 hours, Hungary consumes 48 million Sm3, which is almost two months' consumption of Bosnia and Herzegovina (November and December). 

I will explain why such large withdrawals of gas from storage are happening with a diagram at the end of the text:

The price of gas on the exchange at the beginning of 2021 was approximately 180 USD per 1000 Sm3, and today approximately 1,100 USD per 1000 Sm3. In addition to this, Russian gas has a trend of price increase due to the rise in oil and oil derivatives.

Due to such high prices, many countries are hastily emptying gas storage facilities, for example Hungary, thereby only contributing to a possible gas shortage in the colder days of January and February. An additional complication is caused by Gazprom, which refuses to reserve additional capacities for gas transport via Ukraine and Poland, further complicating the situation, and this is revenge for the suspension of the certification of Nord Stream 2. This certification cannot now be completed by the end of winter 2022. 

Gas prices have exploded, and we announced everything back in March 2021, and the minister laughed at us. The evidence is in the Prosecutor's Office and the FUP. The price of gas has already been increased from 485 KM to 599 KM per 1000 Sm3. This is just the beginning of the gas price increase.

From the example of Hungary, it can be seen that in Hungary's gas consumption, gas from the TurkStream means almost nothing, while Beregovo and the direction from Ukraine still hold primacy in supplying Hungary. Now I would remind you of the statements from Energoinvest that there would be no gas at Beregovo and that we had to switch to the TurkStream. Gas at Beregovo is still being delivered, and more than from the TurkStream. We received an arbitration worth 21.1 million USD.

Finally, I ask all authorities to address this issue because all indications point to problems with gas, from price to quantities. Gas is not a potato that you can buy whenever you want; you have to figure out where to buy it and through which route to transport it so that everything is in order. The current prices on the exchanges, which no one in our region can afford, are causing problems here. I would really like this scenario not to happen, but everything indicates that the gas market is experiencing an explosion, AND NO ONE BELIEVED US IN MARCH WHEN WE ANNOUNCED EVERYTHING AND DELIVERED ALL FORECASTS TO THE AUTHORITIES, WHO GREETED EVERYTHING WITH A SMILE. If I were to say now that the dollar exchange rate has also risen, it would be too much for the “experts” who did not even want to accept the basics. React before it is too late because solutions exist, but work is needed, not idle talk.