Politico: By saving Bosnia, Europe could save itself

(Patria) - The Western Balkans have long been perceived as Europe's problematic backyard, but today they could become a region where Europe redefines itself, writes Politico magazine. It states that Europe possesses the tools necessary for this - EUFOR forces, NATO, the Office of the High Representative and the Berlin Process, but the final outcome depends on political will. The region is currently a key opportunity for Europe to take strategic initiative and leadership.

The author of the text “The EU needs a proactive approach in Bosnia”, Arminka Helić, a member of the British House of Lords and former special adviser to British Foreign Secretary William Hague from 2010 to 2014, begins the text by quoting a statement from a former statesman who did not consider the region to be of great importance.

Chancellor Otto von Bismarck once stated: “The Balkans are not worth the life of a single Pomeranian grenadier.”

Such attitudes, she believes, shaped a century of politics, until the bloody wars of the 1990s revealed the fatal price of that indifference.

However, despite its past, the region remains strategically vital – a geopolitical area where Russia and China compete for influence and a transit corridor for illegal migration, arms smuggling and organised crime. And now, as Europe faces its most uncertain period since the Cold War, perhaps even since World War II, this much-maligned region could prove to be a reason for unity.

The truth is that the Western Balkans offer a testing ground for a more confident and effective European defence policy — especially if the bloc can act together to prevent a new crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Helić points out.

“Tensions in Bosnia and Herzegovina have dramatically escalated following last month's conviction of Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik by the State Court, which resulted in a one-year prison sentence and a six-year ban on holding public office. Although the decision pushed the country into its most serious crisis situation since 1995, its state institutions have surprisingly remained composed, defying expectations of a deadly crisis,” she adds.

Meanwhile, continues Helić, Dodik — who has spent the last 18 years actively working against Bosnia's state institutions, with the support of Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán — has threatened to deliver the final separatist blow to Bosnia and Herzegovina's hard-won achievements. Although he hoped that US President Donald Trump would support his ambitions, those hopes have so far been dashed.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio shattered Dodik's secessionist dreams, writing: “The actions of Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik undermine the institutions of Bosnia and Herzegovina and threaten its security and stability. Our nation encourages political leaders in Bosnia and Herzegovina to engage in constructive dialogue. We call on our partners to oppose this dangerous and destabilising behaviour.”

Harsh words then followed from London, Berlin, Brussels, Paris, Rome and Madrid. And during a one-day visit to Bosnia and Herzegovina this week, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte reaffirmed the alliance's commitment to the country's territorial integrity.

But while firm international statements have helped stabilise the situation for now, words alone cannot counter the ongoing risk to peace and security, especially given the broader regional picture, the author points out.

“Vučić is facing growing domestic resistance in Belgrade, as student-led protests against corruption and irresponsible governance have been ongoing for months with unexpected persistence. Faced with this domestic challenge, he might resort to creating an external crisis, potentially in Bosnia and Herzegovina, to divert attention and consolidate his position – a move that would align with his expansionist strategy of a ‘Serbian world’ to unite all Serbs in one state,” the text warns.

Furthermore, continues Helić, the Kremlin continues to work on divisions, viewing the Western Balkans as fertile ground for evil. From Moldova and Georgia to Crimea and, ultimately, the whole of Ukraine, Russia has at every step exploited insufficient Western attention and hesitation.

“Europe must carefully manage this delicate situation. Whether they come from Moscow, Budapest or Belgrade, autocrats fear internal opposition more than external pressure, and the resilience of Serbian student protesters shows that nationalist revisionism is not inevitable. Resistance to authoritarian rule is growing within Serbia itself. Therefore, the Western Balkans now offer Europe an opportunity to reverse its reactive pattern through a strategy of deterrence, strength and principled engagement. Several clear principles must guide this approach: Borders must remain inviolable; violence must be prevented, democratic institutions must be strengthened, and revisionists must not be allowed to dictate the region's future,” she underscores.

Specifically, in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Europe possesses the necessary tools for this: the European Union Force in Bosnia and Herzegovina (EUFOR), the NATO headquarters in Sarajevo, the Office of the High Representative and the Berlin Process are there, but political will is needed to deploy them effectively. And the announcement of an additional 400 EUFOR troops, which are now almost fully deployed, is a good start.

In addition, Bosnia and Herzegovina could also receive a security guarantee. An end to constant discussions about borders would benefit democracy in Bosnia and its neighbours — Serbia, and even Croatia — which is often stifled by the protection of “their people” in the neighbouring state.

Washington has for decades called on Europe to “take responsibility” for the Western Balkans. With growing external threats on multiple fronts and Ukraine fighting for survival, the region now presents a key opportunity for Europe to finally retake the strategic initiative and demonstrate true leadership – and not only through the enlargement framework.

A proactive approach to Bosnia and Herzegovina could particularly signal that Europe is no longer content with mere reaction, Helić believes, but is ready to shape events – precisely the forward-looking attitude needed in this new era of great power competition. And success here would demonstrate the bloc's ability to defend its fundamental principles, preserve decades of painstaking peacebuilding, and reassert its influence in a region central to its security interests.

The Western Balkans have long served as Europe's testing ground. Today, they could become a region where Europe redefines itself — not as weak and divided, but as strong, capable and ready to lead, the author points out, concluding that “by saving Bosnia, Europe could save itself.”