Political Momentum or an Equation with Three Unknowns

Written by: Sifet Kukuruz, legal expert

The attack on the constitutional order of Bosnia and Herzegovina, carried out publicly by Milorad Dodik and semi-secretly by Dragan Čović, has made the character of the politics of the Troika parties completely clear. The policies of Milorad Dodik and Dragan Čović have been known for a long time and have their origins in war goals.

However, in the Bosnian-Herzegovinian political equation with three variables (x, y, z), supposedly only the third 'z' variable, recognized as the 'Troika parties', was presented as unknown. Since its appearance, it has been convincing BiH citizens that the 'political momentum' had finally arrived for BiH to move strongly towards EU and NATO integration. The third variable, embodied in the leaders of the Troika parties, tied the arrival of 'political momentum' exclusively to its appearance on the political scene, and especially to its participation in government at the state level.

That the emergence of the Troika parties truly brought favorable 'political momentum' was best understood by Milorad Dodik and Dragan Čović themselves. After mutually agreeing to install the Troika parties in government at the state level, they energetically launched into a decisive battle to realize their long-standing political dreams.

The continuity of the policies of Milorad Dodik and Dragan Čović best proves that this is not a political equation with unknowns at all. Namely, if one acknowledges the fact that Milorad Dodik has not changed, just as Dragan Čović has not changed, that the policy of the SNSD has not changed, just as the policy of the HDZ has not changed, and if one acknowledges the fact that the policy of the international community towards BiH has not changed, and it hasn't, then the question naturally arises - what has changed?

If Milorad Dodik and Dragan Čović remained the same, and they did, if the policies of the SNSD and HDZ remained the same, and they did, and if the policy of the international community towards BiH remained the same, and it did - what then changed in the political equation? What changed so that Milorad Dodik launched an open attack on the constitutional order of BiH, and Dragan Čović a covert one? Why did Milorad Dodik and Dragan Čović finally do what they had always wished for but had not dared to do until now?

The answer to these questions cannot be sought in the 'x' or 'y' variable, but exclusively in the third 'z' variable.

Namely, Milorad Dodik and Dragan Čović attacked the constitutional order of BiH:

- because in the political equation they finally established a disproportionate imbalance of political power and took over levers they did not have before;

- because they ceded to the Troika parties levers of power that essentially render them powerless to prevent the attack on the constitutional order of BiH;

- because the Troika parties are authorized to participate in government solely by the will of Milorad Dodik and Dragan Čović; and

- because at any moment, solely by the will of Milorad Dodik and Dragan Čović, the Troika parties can be replaced in government by other political parties.

In the political equation with three unknowns (x, y, z), the third variable proved decisive for the wrong and harmful political result for the state of BiH. This is the variable denoted by 'z' in the equation, which in real politics possesses 'zero' political significance and influence.

And it is precisely because of this third variable in the political equation that Milorad Dodik and Dragan Čović dared to finally launch a decisive strike against the state of BiH through anti-constitutional actions for which they previously lacked the courage.

Therefore, when the Troika parties became their partners in government, Milorad Dodik and Dragan Čović assessed that the long-awaited 'political momentum' had arrived to begin the final phase of realizing their policies. It is precisely for this reason that the greatest responsibility for the anti-constitutional actions of Milorad Dodik and Dragan Čović lies with the third 'z' variable, which in the political equation is expressed with 'zero' political weight and significance.