Political analyst on Iran-US conflict: Chances of conventional war are slim

(Patria) – Following the assassination of Iranian Revolutionary Guard commander Qassem Soleimani, numerous reactions and speculations about possible scenarios have emerged, particularly regarding the development of relations between the US and Iran.

Political analyst for the Middle East at the University of London's SOAS, Soraya Lennie, commented for Euronews that Iran and the US are closer to war than ever before, and that after the attack, very few avenues remain for reducing tensions between the two countries.

- Iran is a rational player, however, given the enormous pressure coming from the domestic hardline, as well as external groups like Hezbollah, Iran will find itself in a difficult situation regarding the decision on how and whether to respond to the attack, Lennie explains, adding 'we can think that no one wants war, but as we have seen in recent years, certain state actors in the region are pushing the US towards war, and that reality has become even closer with the election of Donald Trump, and now very close after the assassination of Qassem Soleimani'.

Lennie also sees no significant chance for de-escalation of the crisis 'given that Iran gambled on the nuclear deal from which the US subsequently withdrew', and predicts that 'Iran is not capable of waging a conventional war against the US because it lacks the appropriate military capabilities'.

This political analyst claims that Iran is 'good at asymmetric warfare'.

- Iran has for many years – since the 1979 revolution – built critical capital in countries like Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, Lennie explains and believes that 'Iran can use this', and if some kind of war occurs, whereby she does not predict a conventional war, 'Iran can be expected to use its proxies who will put pressure on American capabilities across the region'.

She believes that the US is aware of this and that is why, through its embassy in Iraq, it ordered its personnel to leave that country, Euronews reports.