Gas policy according to Čović's and Russian notes: Will Nikšić be on the US blacklist?

(Patria) - The departure of Michael Murphy from BiH does not mean that the United States has abandoned its strategic interests in the country, among which the energy project known as the Southern Interconnection is particularly significant.

On the contrary, the latest developments suggest that Washington may further tighten its approach towards domestic politicians who jeopardize the realization of this project, writes Istraga.ba.

The sharpest blow came after the statements of the Federal Prime Minister Nermin Nikšić, who apologized to Dragan Čović in a public address, claiming that they were "forced" to adopt the Law on the Southern Interconnection.

- So, after our communication, I said - Dragan, I apologize, this has changed, take it back to the beginning. So, the man understood, we outvoted the HDZ, that was the first item on the Government. After that, we had 89 items that we adopted unanimously.

I know from previous periods that it was a blockade of the federal government, whether by SDA, HDZ, SDP, or anyone else, for half a year. So, we were at the government, after the agreement we made, on the principle of how we would solve it, and believe me, in a month or two we would have solved it in the way we agreed.

We had what we had, some pressure, we all know, so, well, it was mentioned and it changed - Nikšić stated.

With this statement and behavior, Nikšić not only challenged the institutional integrity of law-making but also implied that international pressure is a key factor in decision-making within domestic political structures.

Such a statement represents a diplomatic precedent. In the context of BiH-US relations, an open admission that laws are agreed to under pressure and an apology to a partner who often adopts nationalist positions can be interpreted as a distancing from previously agreed reform directions. This seriously undermines the credibility of both Nikšić and Čović as political interlocutors.

Diplomatic circles suspect that such behavior could lead to sanctions – being placed on the so-called blacklist.

The story has already become quite concrete after US Senator Jeanne Shaheen, a ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, gave opening remarks at a hearing on ambassadorial nominations, including the nominated ambassador to Croatia, Nicole McGraw.

- Previous administrations have supported the BiH energy sector to complete the Southern Interconnection. It would connect BiH's energy infrastructure with Croatia, thus separating BiH from total dependence on Russian gas, and Croatia would have the opportunity to become a regional leader.

A stalemate has occurred, and this is why I am focused on BiH, due to the leader of BiH Croats, Dragan Čović. He blocked this project and is looking for ways to use the construction of the Southern Interconnection to increase his power - Shaheen said.

The US, therefore, regardless of the change in administration, does not look favorably upon political actors who, for any reason, block key energy and reform projects.

If it turns out that they treated the Southern Interconnection as a means of political bargaining, Nikšić and Čović could find themselves under direct US pressure – and not just declarative.

It is clear that Murphy's withdrawal does not mean the end of American engagement. On the contrary, everything indicates that the US will look for new reliable partners in BiH, those who do not agree to political improvisation when it comes to key strategic projects. And what Nikšić agreed to for peace with Čović, which means that sanctions could also affect Nikšić.