Five Key Obstacles for BiH to Obtain a Billion Euros from the EU Fund: Do the Troika, HDZ and SNSD Know What Reforms Are!?

Written by: Rasim Belko @rasimbelko

The Chairwoman of the Council of Ministers of BiH, Borjana Krišto, sent the reform Agenda requested by the European Commission from the Western Balkan countries at the end of April in order to enable the distribution of funds from the Reform and Growth Facility. Even then, it was stated that this Agenda was not fully aligned with the Commission, but the BiH authorities, composed of the Troika (NiP, SDP, NS), HDZ and SNSD, hope for yet another turning a blind eye and a billion euros from the European fund.

However, if we look at the current functioning of the state authorities, the situation in the country and what was stated to Patria by the EC spokesperson Peter Stano as conditions for obtaining funds , I fear that the billion will remain just a dream.

Prerequisites that must be met include standard conditionality that must be fulfilled at all times, namely that beneficiaries continue to support and respect effective democratic mechanisms, including a multi-party parliamentary system, free and fair elections, media pluralism, an independent judiciary and the rule of law, and guarantee respect for all obligations regarding human rights, including the rights of persons belonging to minorities.

Thus, even a superficial assessment of the fulfillment of these conditions in BiH makes it clear that our chances are slim. Because democratic mechanisms in BiH are respected declaratively but undermined in practice, the parliamentary system is captured and blocked at both the state and entity levels, and elections and the electoral system are under a big question mark. Media pluralism exists in form, but institutional attacks on the media (RS) and verbal attacks in the FBiH are much stronger than that form. It is unnecessary to even talk about an independent judiciary, because it is neither independent nor a judiciary.

And, respect for all obligations regarding human rights is a problem that could be a stumbling block for Bosnia and Herzegovina. Because, in this segment, we have a problem with the Houses of Peoples at the state and entity levels, which are essentially ethnic and in which the rights of persons who do not declare themselves according to the ethnic matrix are completely neutralized.

The protection of active voting rights is an obstacle for Bosnia and Herzegovina related to fair and free elections, but also to respect for human rights. In that case, Bosnia and Herzegovina could be seriously financially affected by the judgment in the case "Kovačević vs. BiH", which contains the need for full democracy through the protection of active voting rights. And Bosnia and Herzegovina has not only failed to fulfill this obligation regarding human rights, but has, through semi-legal agents, filed a kind of appeal to the ECtHR against this judgment.

When we add to all this the fact that an attack on the European path is being prepared in BiH, i.e., the cunning game of the Troika and HDZ in the Parliament of FBiH, the fear of losing the billion euros is greater. Because, if the authorities in the Federation, as planned, elect Marin Vukoja as a judge of the Constitutional Court of BiH on May 28 and do not wait for the opinion of the Venice Commission on EU practice in the selection of constitutional judges, it will be completely clear that our authorities are not interested in European practice, and then it is not impossible that even the European countries that will decide on our Reform Agenda and oversee its implementation will not be interested in our need for their money.

General conditions, as Stano told us, are macro-financial stability, sound public financial management, budget transparency and oversight.

And here we have a problem. Because the Fiscal Council, composed of the Chairwoman of the Council of Ministers, entity prime ministers, and the ministers of finance of the state and entities, adopted the budget framework for this year and projections for the next two years in the amount of approximately 1.2 billion KM. And this is the time in which Bosnia and Herzegovina, if it meets the prerequisites, will be able to withdraw funds from the EU. The question then is, what will happen if, by some miracle, we fulfill the reforms and in 2025 "withdraw" 300 million KM. These funds must go into the state budget; the EU will not pay them otherwise. And if the fiscal framework of the projected budget is actually the foundation of that budget and cannot be manipulated much, what magic tricks can be used to fit 300 million into a "locked" budget. Impossible, unless we annul or amend the Law on the Fiscal Council, which the SDP and SNSD passed about 15 years ago to distribute funds belonging to the state to the entities, and limit the state to a cemented 1 to 1.2 billion KM. It should certainly be noted that Bosnia and Herzegovina, towards the end of the second fiscal quarter, does not have an adopted budget. And if we are to judge by Dodik's words, it will not have one for some time yet, thereby jeopardizing macro-financial stability.

Thus, if we analyze the facts about the functioning of state authorities, the sluggishness in adopting laws and other decisions makes it certain that we will not fulfill the necessary reforms at the expected pace. With such actions, we are already failing on the prerequisites. If a miracle happens and we start fulfilling the prerequisites, we fail on the general conditions that imply macro-financial stability...

If we fulfill that segment as well, the reform decisions come to the scale of quantitative and qualitative, and additionally the fact that the conditions for payment are specific to each country. In that case, the state authorities will not be able to adopt laws as in the case of the Law on the HJPC, on the principle of here is the form of the law and we will adopt the real one in a year. The reforms will therefore be evaluated on multiple grounds and, depending on that, tranches from the Fund will be paid out, of course if that is possible due to the limited budget.

In summary, the Troika, by supporting Vukoja, will be an accomplice to the SNSD and HDZ in blocking the possibility for BiH to withdraw funds from the Reform and Growth Facility. And thanks to the HDZ and SNSD, we will not fulfill a single prerequisite, because it has long been clear that their governance does not imply democracy, human rights, fair elections and the rule of law. Parties that promote war policies, criminalize defamation, persecute the media, seek legitimate representation and undermine the constitutional order cannot expect that orderly European states will vote to finance their system. But, one can hope that it will be better one day, when the Troika realizes where it is and what it is participating in, or when those who created the Troika realize that they have created a serious problem for Bosnia and Herzegovina!

What is certain is that there will be no turning a blind eye, because the European bureaucracy will use the simple method of done / not done and decide on the payment of funds from the Reform and Growth Facility.