Parliament of BiH and Council of Ministers of BiH after the Radmanović and Nešić cases: Who can dismiss whom, and who can block?

Written by: Avdo Avdić/Istraga.ba

If you read this text carefully, you will understand that the story about the reconstruction of government at the BiH level is an ordinary fraud. Because everything that has been started cannot be finished. Here are the basic details of how government functions at the BiH level, how decisions are made, how appointments and dismissals are carried out, and what that means in the current balance of power.

Appointment of the Council of Ministers of BiH

“The Presidency shall appoint the Chair of the Council of Ministers, who takes office after being confirmed by the House of Representatives. The Chair appoints the Minister of Foreign Affairs, the Minister of Foreign Trade, and other ministers as necessary, who shall take office after being confirmed by the House of Representatives,” states the Constitution of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Article V, paragraph 4).

Current balance of power

The Presidency of BiH consists of Željka Cvijanović, Denis Bećirović, and Željko Komšić. The decision to appoint Borjana Krišto as Chair of the Council of Ministers of BiH was made by the votes of Denis Bećirović and Željka Cvijanović. Although outvoted, Željko Komšić did not have the right to invoke the vital national interest, because the appointment of the Council of Ministers is not subject to that type of review. Therefore, two votes in the Presidency of BiH are sufficient for the appointment of the Council of Ministers.

In the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of BiH, the balance of power is as follows: SDA now has eight seats. Of these eight seats, one is from the Republika Srpska (Edin Ramić), while the remaining seven were elected from the Federation. Shortly after the elections, SDA had nine seats, but Šemsudin Mehmedović left SDA and now acts independently. The second largest group in the House of Representatives of the PA BiH is the SNSD and its partners' Club. This club has eight representatives. SDP BiH has five representatives, HDZ four, DF and NiP three each, SDS, PDP, Naša stranka, and NES two each, and finally BHI of Fuad Kasumović and the party of Nebojša Vukanović have one representative each.

For a session of the House of Representatives of the PA BiH to be held, at least ten representatives from the Federation and at least five representatives from the Republika Srpska must be present in the hall. Given that the opposition from the RS has five representatives, and that SDA has one representative from the Republika Srpska, SNSD could not block the quorum at sessions of the House of Representatives.

Decision-making in the House of Representatives of the PA BiH

“All decisions in the House,” states the Rules of Procedure of the House of Representatives of the PA BiH, “are made by a majority of votes of those present and voting.”

The same article states: “If the majority of votes does not include one-third of the votes of delegates from the territory of each entity, the Chair of the House and his deputies shall meet as a commission and attempt to secure agreement within three days after the vote. If this fails, decisions are made by a majority of votes of those present and voting, provided that the votes ‘against’ do not contain two-thirds or more of the delegates elected from each entity.”

What does this look like in practice?

For a decision to be adopted, in the first round, at least ten representatives from the Federation and five representatives from the Republika Srpska must vote in favor. In addition, there must be more votes in favor than against. For example, a decision in the House of Representatives of the PA BiH can be passed with fifteen votes, provided that no more than fifteen are against and that at least five from the RS and at least ten from the Federation vote in favor. There is, of course, decision-making in the second round if these conditions are not met in the first round. For instance, fifteen representatives voted for a certain decision, but the decision was not supported by five from the RS, only three voted in favor. In that case, the decision would pass provided that ten from the RS do not vote against.

What did this mean in 2022?

After the constitution of the House of Representatives of the PA, there were enough hands from both entities to form the Council of Ministers of BiH without the votes of SNSD and HDZ. And precisely by the votes of the same representatives who on Thursday evening dismissed Nebojša Radmanović from the position of member of the Collegium of the House of Representatives of the PA BiH. The representatives of SDA, SDP, DF, NiP, NS, SDS, PDP, BHI of Fuad Kasumović, Naprijed, and the representative from the party of Nebojša Vukanović voted for the dismissal. Representatives of HDZ and SNSD voted against. Since there was an entity majority (six from the RS and more than 10 from the FBiH), Radmanović was dismissed. This means that the same parties could have formed the Council of Ministers of BiH in 2022, because Željko Komšić and Denis Bećirović could have outvoted Željka Cvijanović when appointing the mandate holder. But they did not. The opposite happened because the Trojka decided to form the Council of Ministers with SNSD and HDZ.

Dismissal of the Council of Ministers and individual ministers

“The Presidency of BiH may propose the dismissal of the Chair of the Council of Ministers. If the Parliamentary Assembly of BiH votes no confidence in the Chair, the Council of Ministers resigns in its entirety, but continues to perform its duties until the confirmation of a new Chair and members of the Council of Ministers. The Parliamentary Assembly may also, on its own initiative, vote no confidence in the Council of Ministers. In both cases, the procedure from Articles 9 and 10 of this law applies,” states the Law on the Council of Ministers of BiH (Article 13).

If you read more carefully, you will see that in the context of the dismissal of the Council of Ministers of BiH, a decision of the Parliamentary Assembly of BiH is mentioned, not just the House of Representatives of the PA BiH. This means that the decision to dismiss the Council of Ministers of BiH or individual ministers must be made in both houses of the Parliamentary Assembly of BiH, i.e., in both the House of Representatives and the House of Peoples of the PA BiH.

What does this mean in practice for the current convocation?

If the parties whose representatives dismissed Nebojša Radmanović on Thursday stuck together, the current convocation of the Council of Ministers of BiH could be dismissed, provided that the delegates of SNSD and HDZ do not block the adoption of the decision through the quorum in the House of Peoples of the PA BiH. Namely, SNSD and HDZ have 12 representatives in the House of Representatives of the PA BiH, which means that 30 representatives remain on the other side. Therefore, SNSD and HDZ could be outvoted in the House of Representatives. When it comes to the House of Peoples, the situation is slightly different.

The House of Peoples of the PA BiH has fifteen delegates. Ten delegates, five Bosniaks and five Croats, come from the Federation, and five delegates, Serbs, come from the Republika Srpska.

“The quorum consists of nine delegates, provided that at least three Bosniak, three Croat, and three Serb delegates are present,” states the Rules of Procedure of the House of Peoples of the PA BiH.

Therefore, for a session of the House of Peoples to be held, there must be three delegates from the Serb, Croat, and Bosniak clubs in the hall.

Current situation in the House of Peoples

Currently sitting in the House of Peoples: In the Croat Club – three delegates from HDZ BiH, one delegate from HDZ 1990, and Zlatko Miletić. In the Serb Club, three delegates from SNSD, one delegate from PDP, and one delegate from SDS, and in the Bosniak Club, two delegates from SDA, one delegate from DF, one delegate from SBiH, and one delegate from NiP.

Dismissal of ministers from SNSD – unrealistic expectations

If the House of Representatives of the PA BiH were to make a decision (and it can) on the dismissal of SNSD ministers in the Council of Ministers of BiH, the decision on dismissal would go to the House of Peoples of the PA BiH. Provided there is a quorum, and that all parties that voted for the dismissal of Nebojša Radmanović follow their vote from the House of Representatives, SNSD ministers could be dismissed. Namely, with the votes of opposition delegates from the RS (two), the entity majority from the RS would be fulfilled, while with the votes of the Bosniak Club and one delegate from the Croat ranks, the entity majority (at least four votes from the Federation) from the FBiH would also be fulfilled. For the dismissal of ministers from SNSD, and even HDZ, there is the necessary number of hands in the House of Peoples as well – 2 SDA plus 1 NiP plus 1 DF plus 1 SBiH plus 1 SDS plus 1 PDP plus Zlatko Miletić totals eight. This means that there is the necessary majority to remove SNSD and HDZ from the Council of Ministers.

SNSD and HDZ's possibility of blockade

According to the Rules of Procedure, a session of the House of Peoples of the PA BiH cannot be held if there are not three delegates from each of the three constituent people's clubs in the hall. SNSD and HDZ have three delegates each in the Serb Club and Croat Club, respectively. If the three SNSD delegates do not come to the session, the session will not be held. Therefore, SNSD still holds the key in the House of Peoples of the PA BiH, because by not attending, they can prevent the adoption of any decision (including reform laws). In this way, SNSD can prevent the dismissal of its ministers in the Council of Ministers of BiH, and the dismissal of Nikola Špirić from the Collegium of the House of Peoples of the PA BiH. The same applies to HDZ BiH. Dragan Čović's party has three delegates in the Croat Club, and if they do not come to the session, the session cannot be held.

Due to this blockade mechanism, SNSD and HDZ hold the entire situation in their hands, because dismissal is not possible unless the party of Milorad Dodik and the party of Dragan Čović essentially agree to the dismissal.

Appointment and dismissal of the Minister of Security

“Ministers and deputy ministers may resign without explanation. Ministers and deputy ministers submit their resignation to the Chair of the Council of Ministers. If a minister or deputy minister resigns or is permanently prevented from performing their duties, the Chair of the Council of Ministers appoints their successor, no later than 15 days from the day of submission of their resignation and/or from the day it is established that the minister or deputy minister is permanently prevented from performing their duties. The successor of the minister or deputy minister assumes duty after being confirmed by the House of Representatives in accordance with the procedure provided for in Article 10 of this law,” states the Law on the Council of Ministers of BiH.

What does this mean in the case of Nenad Nešić?

Given that Nenad Nešić submitted his resignation, his dismissal is not decided by the Parliamentary Assembly of BiH (House of Representatives and House of Peoples of the PA BiH), but by the Chair of the Council of Ministers of BiH, Borjana Krišto. If Borjana Krišto makes a decision on the dismissal of Nenad Nešić, the Ministry of Security of BiH will be managed by his deputy Ivica Bošnjak (HDZ). Krišto has a deadline of 15 days to propose Nešić's successor, and the House of Representatives of the PA BiH decides on him. However, it is not prescribed what happens if that deadline is exceeded. Previous practice proves that nothing happens.

Therefore, the House of Representatives of the PA BiH cannot appoint Nešić's successor until Borjana Krišto proposes him. Is it realistic to expect that Krišto will propose a candidate from SDS, PDP, and Nebojša Vukanović, or is it more realistic to expect that this position will remain vacant until conditions are met for the appointment of an SNSD cadre? In this case as well, HDZ BiH holds the key, and from their vote in the Radmanović case, it is clear that the Dodik-Čović alliance is unbreakable.

Appointment of the successor of Nebojša Radmanović

For the successor of Nebojša Radmanović in the Collegium of the House of Representatives of the PA BiH to be appointed, he must receive the support of the majority of delegates in the House of Representatives of the PA BiH. The Trojka parties have ten representatives, and the opposition from the RS has five. Adding the votes of Šemsudin Mehmedović, and the representatives of NES and the party of Fuad Kasumović, we arrive at the number of 19 representatives. This means that the fate of the new coalition in the House of Representatives of the PA BiH is in the hands of the representatives of SDA and DF. Because without their votes, SDS cannot get a seat in the Collegium.

Will the price in that case be paid by the cadres of NiP, Elmedin Konaković and Denis Zvizdić?