GERMAN DIPLOMACY WARNED: Dodik rattles sabre, stop him!

SARAJEVO, (Patria) - Milorad Dodik threatens secession of the RS, stoking fear of a new war. Politician Marieluise Beck also sees this danger - and in an interview with Welt advises Foreign Minister  Annalena Baerbock to create a clear strategy.

A new conflict is looming in the Balkans, which goes almost unnoticed in Germany, writes the German newspaper Die Welt. Marieluise Beck, who was a Green Party member of the Bundestag until 2017, explains why the new federal government should "take the sabre-rattling of Serbian leader Milorad Dodik seriously", reports Deutsche Welle.

Marie Luise Beck explains at the beginning of the interview for Welt why Bosnia has returned to the list of politically problematic countries. "The EU has for years accepted that state-building is clearly not progressing. The provocations of Milorad Dodik were ignored. But now he is clearly serious with his threats to separate the Republika Srpska from Bosnia and Herzegovina. That would destroy the West's efforts to build a functional multi-ethnic state, and thus the prospects of one day seeing a reconciled Western Balkans in the EU," says the German politician and adds: "We must critically ask ourselves what mistakes we made in BiH."

Welt states that back in 1995 there were those who warned that with the "unfinished construction" represented by the Dayton Agreement, BiH could not function and that this could be a risk of a new war, to which Marie Luise Beck says that despite this, there was hope in the West that the inhabitants of BiH could return to coexistence as it "supposedly existed during Tito's time", although "there were tensions beneath the surface".

The former Bundestag member says things went wrong primarily "because of nationalists", who arranged themselves well with the "division into Serbian, Bosniak and Croatian parts" and admits that the optimism of the West has not materialised.

This, according to Beck, is particularly evident in the actions of Milorad Dodik. She recalls how, when Dodik threatened a referendum on secession, the then EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Catherine Ashton travelled to Banja Luka to dissuade him from it. "As a concession for abandoning the referendum, all the documents incriminating Dodik were handed over to him," emphasised Marieluise Beck and added: "Those who enter into such rotten compromises, like the EU, cannot build a state. And especially not when the foundation of such a state is a wrong construction," said the German politician in an interview with Welt.

The Welt journalist recalled Dodik's statement: "The West made a sh... in BiH and now we have to live with it" and asked whether secession could really be a solution and whether it could reconcile the region?

Marie Luise Beck strongly contradicts, emphasising that "a homogeneous nation-state does not lead to peace but to war". She explains that there were many mixed marriages in BiH and that religion did not play a major role. She also points out that a modern state accepts pluralism and protects minorities. "Serbia is an example that homogenisation does not lead to peace. Otherwise, an agreement with Kosovo acceptable to both countries would have been reached long ago," noted the German politician.

Asked what a solution for BiH could look like, bearing in mind that Dodik "will not stop his attempts at blackmail, but also that even after him, some new Dodik could come", Marieluise Beck points out that sanctions against Dodik "are an alternative" but believes the problem is that the international community does not act decisively. She also notes that "while Putin acts geostrategically, the European Union lacks a clear strategy."  However, when it comes to the prospect of Western Balkan countries joining the EU, Beck believes it is "still realistic" and represents "the right approach".

Asked by the journalist how to interpret Dodik's chest-beating about Putin's support in the event of secession and what games are being played there, Marieluise Beck says Putin is considered a politician who quickly recognises and knows how to exploit a tactical advantage. He has a "distinctly revanchist way of thinking", would like to restore Russia's greatness and "dreams of a united Orthodox world". And here, adds the German politician, Dodik "plays into his hands - by returning to the Serbian sphere of power and thus to the antechamber of Russia".

In this context, the German politician refers to the actions of the new German Foreign Minister, "who has a clear stance towards autocracies such as Russia and China". According to Marieluise Beck, Annalena Baerbock should make the Western Balkans "the focus of her work". "Dodik must be clearly told that there are consequences and that after A comes B and that he should think carefully about what he is doing." The German government, in the opinion of Marieluise Beck, "must show readiness when it sees Putin strengthening Dodik's back on the issue of secession, which is contrary to international law." Marieluise Beck also emphasises that the European Union needs to be ready to jointly show determination and strength. She adds that given Orban's support for Dodik, the principle of decision-making in the EU by consensus is "a barrier".

Therefore, it is important, concludes the long-time Green Party politician in the interview for Welt, "to make political and military adventures a high risk for rulers like Dodik and Putin, so that they ultimately do not undertake them", writes Deutsche Welle.