'Peaceful Bosnia' is in the EU's interest: Neither has Dodik escaped, nor will Čović get a third entity

Written by: Ernad Metaj

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The EU's approach to the situation in BiH is significantly more complex than how it is sometimes simplistically presented in the media, especially in terms of fulfilling the wishes of interested actors. The war in Ukraine has changed a lot within the EU itself, which today acts more united than before. In this regard, one must understand the stances regarding BiH, especially when it comes to the decision to apply the principle of unanimous support from all member states for imposing sanctions.

At first glance, it would seem that this is a tailwind for secessionist policies in BiH, especially for Milorad Dodik, who seemed unlikely to avoid sanctions. It is true that with the EU's new approach, the policy of Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán gains importance, but it is still difficult to claim that this explicitly means protection for Dodik. The fact is that, so far, the only EU official to impose certain sanctions on Dodik is European Commissioner Oliver Várhelyi, from Viktor Orbán's party. The 600 million euros intended to support the construction of a highway through the RS have been halted.

At a time when the EU is at a new crossroads, claiming with certainty that Dodik has escaped sanctions is tendentious. Dodik himself has retreated a bit, which could mean there are signals that Hungary, in the event of further escalation of the crisis in BiH, might accept the stance of the EU majority, which objectively sees things in BiH. Thus, Slovenian MEP Klemen Grošelj believes that Bosnia and Herzegovina, precisely because of the ruling nationalist elites, has a European future.

– My assessment is that the maneuvering space for those forces is narrowing. The very clear message of NATO's support for Bosnia and Herzegovina, which is under Russian pressure, should be highlighted. And you must understand that this was a decision resulting from seeking compromise within the EU on certain issues related to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia.

There is no reason for celebration in the HDZ either, although they try to present the return of the concept of constituent peoples to the EU's strategic security compass as a victory. It is precisely security that has united the EU, and no one will allow playing with fire in BiH again. The fear of Russian expansion is currently greater than the specter of Islamism in BiH. In the end, the messages from Germany and the Netherlands regarding constituent peoples are completely clear.

In this regard, it is extremely important that BiH does not yield to ethnonationalist aspirations aimed at consolidating their own positions through the Election Law, as well as deepening divisions. The format of the negotiations did suggest that the international community was favoring ethnonationalism, but the message that elections must be held even without an agreement is a signal that changes will occur on this front in the coming period. Of course, this largely depends on the will of BiH citizens, who will show with their votes what kind of BiH they want. It would be very important for BiH to have parties in power that do not see BiH exclusively as three ethnic groups, which would certainly give a tailwind to a change in the EU's course, as well as that of its negotiators regarding the Election Law.

What should not be overlooked are clear indicators that, due to general security, the attitude of people in the RS towards BiH's membership in NATO is slowly changing, although no one talks about it. The EU must return to its basic principles, and therefore the anti-civilizational and undemocratic outbursts of the leaders of the HDZ and SNSD before MEPs should not go unpunished.

The majority in the EU understands that Croatia and Serbia have not given up on interfering in the internal affairs of BiH. It is clear to everyone that Russian influence lies behind this. It is certain that Serbia, after the elections, will have to more precisely define its foreign policy, and that Croatia, with the EU, must seek compromises for its interests, such as Schengen. All of this can affect the relaxation of relations in the entire region, where only a 'peaceful BiH' guarantees the security of the Balkans and the EU.