Meteorologists Release First Forecasts: What Weather Awaits Us This Winter?

(Patria) - The European meteorological service Severe Weather has released its first weather forecast for the winter of 2023/2024, with El Nino set to have a significant impact on the weather.

Severe Weather used three models for its long-term winter forecast: ECMWF from Europe, CanSIPS from Canada, and NMME, a joint project of the USA and Canada.

All these forecasts represent an average picture for the three meteorological winter months (December, January, February) and show the generally prevailing weather conditions.

Even if the models are 100 percent accurate, it does not mean that such weather conditions should last for three consecutive months. It only suggests that weather patterns could be like that most of the time.

According to these models, Europe can expect warmer-than-average temperatures during the winter months, across most of the western and central parts of the continent.

Lower temperatures will be more pronounced in the northern and northeastern parts of the continent.

This means that the main circulation pattern over Europe will be from north to south, indicating a northerly flow over Europe.

Any potential snowfall over central Europe will be linked to the intensity of the northerly flow and individual cold fronts descending from the north, reports tportal.

As for precipitation, more is expected over central and southern Europe. The forecast indicates less snow in Europe, except in higher areas, despite the general expectation of more precipitation.

When it comes to temperatures, looking at the ECMWF model, which is considered the most reliable, they will be higher than usual in western Europe.

But with a low-pressure zone over northern Europe, the possibility increases that the northerly flow will penetrate deeper into the continent, creating a neutral zone above Scandinavia.

Looking at the surface temperature forecast over Europe, surface temperatures should be mostly above normal across the continent. However, the maps also show a neutral zone over its northeastern parts.

The ECMWF model signals that Europe will have above-average precipitation amounts. This increases the potential for snowfall mainly over the Alpine region and Scandinavia.