Waving Billions from Brussels, and BiH Doesn't Even Have a Budget: A Slap from the EU, Restrictions Remain, US Harsh on HDZ, and What About the State?

By: Amina Čorbo-Zećo

Members of the European Council gave the first green light on December 15, 2022, and at that time, Bosnia and Herzegovina officially received candidate status for European Union membership. This was, according to many, a historic day for our country.

And then, for the next two years, suffering and torment, both politically and economically. In the meantime, the international community delivered progress reports on BiH, which were more or less diplomatic and political. Each was presented as 'better than ever,' while life for citizens became increasingly difficult. Most devastatingly, as the reports got better, the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina diminished.

And so we languished, waiting for the second green light, that new historic day of opening negotiations. And we got it.

While the leaders of the 'Trojka' (Trio) Elmedin Konaković, Nermin Nikšić, and Edin Forto are still celebrating today (they have the right to do so) and boasting about Ursula von der Leyen's words that more has been done in the last year than in all previous decades, we remind Nikšić that Federica Mogherini also said something similar a few years ago. He should ask Denis Zvizdić; he knows best, if he doesn't believe the media or his own ears.

Almost 30 years have passed since the end of the aggression in BiH, and today, as for most of the past period, BiH's membership in the EU seems like a distant future.

And no further progress has been made, except for the necessary steps, but the war in Ukraine has changed much. It is the geopolitical situation that has 'pushed' us towards the European Union.

Today's news from Brussels serves as evidence of this, not a press conference by the 'Trojka'. The news is: The Council of the European Union has decided to extend the framework of restrictive measures in light of the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina for another two years, until March 31, 2026.

The European Union will thus retain its ability to impose targeted restrictive measures on individuals or entities that undermine the sovereignty, territorial integrity, constitutional order, and international identity of Bosnia and Herzegovina, according to the European Council's website.

This means that the green light for negotiations has not brought internal stability or prosperity, as restrictive measures can also be imposed on those who seriously endanger the security situation in the country or undermine the Dayton/Paris General Framework Agreement for Peace.

The new phase of European integration still includes SNSD and HDZ BiH, two parties that most divide Bosnia and Herzegovina. One very openly, the other more cunningly through legal loopholes.

Today, on the historic celebration of the Trojka in the BiH Parliament, the US Embassy in Sarajevo sends an alarming warning. They point out that the proposed Election Law of BiH by HDZ BiH would de facto introduce a Croatian electoral unit in the Federation of BiH! This is that small detail that everyone overlooks too often. From the 'Trojka,' they say it's not fair for others to elect representatives for Croats, or that famous 'legitimate representation,' which Dragan Čović makes conditional on everything, including the EU path.

At the same time, it is incredible to listen to the leaders of the Trojka who still take 'compromise' as their starting point, which is desirable, but which persistently suggests that SDA was not ready for it, and fails to call things by their real names. HDZ and SNSD are not budging from their positions. Well, Brussels and America said that today, and the 'Trojka' calls everyone else who warns about it populists and incompetent politicians.

And therefore, on the wave of optimism that the 'Trojka' advocates, they must also keep in mind the Report of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) of the United States of America, which states that the Western Balkans will likely face an increased risk of localized inter-ethnic violence during 2024.

"The Western Balkans, specifically Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo, are mentioned in the chapter 'Conflicts and Instability,' warning that nationalist leaders could exacerbate tensions and exploit ethnic differences to 'increase or protect their regional influence or thwart the broader integration of the Balkans into the EU or Euro-Atlantic institutions.'

This doesn't really concern Konaković, Nikšić, and Forto as they list eight conclusions from Brussels and mention their fourth partner, the EU.

It's about legal solutions (VSS, Court Law...) and they say they will work on them. But they don't seem to care much about what will happen to Bosnia and Herzegovina. Because there is no doubt that we are on that path, the only question is what kind of country we will arrive there as! For now, it is certain that we don't even have a Budget, while they mention billions from Brussels and not a single project ready for that money!

However, one truth must be emphasized, and Nikšić stated it - 'we managed to sell BiH to the European Union without firing a shot.' And indeed, may your faith be rewarded.