LOCAL ELECTIONS 2012. SNSD's collapse as proof that high turnout means change

SARAJEVO, (Patria) - As we announced seven days ago, we continue with the analysis of the Local Elections that are behind us, in anticipation of the Local Elections on November 15 this year. Our goal is to point out that electoral abstinence directly affects election outcomes, as well as the behavior of local authorities during their term. Citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina with the right to vote have more than enough "reasons" not to show up at the polls. The only question is whether they know that they are harming themselves and their future by doing so. Regardless of the desperate governance all these years and the increasingly weak political offerings, elections are one of the few gifts of democracy that they haven't managed to steal from us. They steal votes, they tamper with results, but we also directly help them by not voting.

Today we will analyze the Local Elections held on October 7, 2012. It was one of those years when political tension could be "cut with a knife." The government was falling apart, conflicts between SDA - SDP, SNSD - SDS. Everything stopped for a moment, from state to local government. Everyone announced that the local elections were fateful, even though municipalities have a minor influence on state policy. But, it all seemed like a referendum for or against the state.

Although we stated in the analysis of the 2008 Local Elections that they were characterized by rarely high turnout, those in 2012 were even more "visited." In the Federation of BiH entity, 54.79 percent of eligible voters turned out, while in the smaller BiH entity of Republika Srpska, turnout reached 59.18 percent. Of course, all of this is far from the average in developed democratic societies, but given the situation in BiH, it's nowhere near enough. The statistical viewer of the Central Election Commission states that persons older than 30 voted in a significantly larger number than those younger than 30.
Just another piece of evidence that young people have decided to leave their fate to the people who have been leading us to ruin for decades.

When it comes to the winners of the 2012 Local Elections, by standard custom, everyone was a winner and satisfied, only the people lost. The dramatic political situation from the pre-election period spilled over into the election campaign, and inevitably reflected in the results.

The conditional winner of the elections was SDA, with an increase in the number of votes won compared to previous elections. However, compared to 2008, SDA won two fewer mayoral mandates, and in the post-election period, their ministers were removed from power at the state and federal levels. Fahrudin Radončić's SBB won two mandates, and soon after the elections, Radončić was involved in Zlatko Lagumdžija's combinations and was appointed Minister of Security.

SDP BiH won almost 100,000 fewer votes in the 2012 Local Elections compared to the General Elections, but they made progress in terms of Local Elections compared to 2008. Nevertheless, for SDP, losing the mayoral positions in the Sarajevo municipality of Novi Grad and in Bihać was a great disappointment.

Dragan Čović's HDZ, although it announced a convincing victory, did not achieve its plans, so in 2012, compared to 2008, they won four fewer mayoral mandates. The fight in the smaller BiH entity was mainly among old acquaintances from SDS and SNSD. SDS maintained its support from 2008, while certain groups of voters clearly fell out with SNSD, so Milorad Dodik's party experienced a decline.

SDS recorded the largest growth in the number of mayoral mandates won at that time, specifically 25. At the same time, SNSD fell from 41 mandates in 2008 to 15 mayoral seats.

To all of this, it should be added that in 2012, the fragmentation of large parties began, which also significantly affected the results.

What is particularly specific is the fact that high turnout did bring about changes. A drastic drop for SNSD and HDZ, but also a new balance on the political scene of the Federation of BiH. Therefore, it is essential for the citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina to understand that changes will not be brought by Santa Claus or any imaginary phenomenon. Changes start with each of us individually. The year 2012 showed this, it's time we understood it in 2020. Go out and vote, it's time to change things.