Cuba to elect new president, Castro not a candidate

HAVANA, (Patria) - For the first time in six decades, Cuba is ready to elect a president not named Castro. The island nation will hold elections for the National Assembly on March 11, which will then select a new president on April 19.

President Raul Castro, brother of the late longtime leader Fidel Castro, will not run for re-election. Six years ago, he introduced a term limit provision and will respect it, reports Danas.

Some optimistic assessments suggest this is the first step toward democratization of the island. However, more cautious, realistic ones indicate that Cuba is moving toward the same – one-party undemocratic rule, comments the New York Times.

If the Cuban Communist Party – the only one allowed to participate in elections under the one-party regime – is smart, analysts argue, it will try to make the best of it. More precisely, by transitioning to democracy on its own terms, the party could reap benefits.

Newly established institutions and laws (for example, electoral laws) could be tailored to its advantage. The party could use the fact that Castro is no longer in charge to introduce new freedoms for Cubans, thereby generating goodwill that could be converted into votes, according to observers.

After all, in many new democracies, old authoritarian ruling parties (or parties formed by former dictators) remain influential actors. From Mexico to Mongolia, Poland to Panama, Spain to South Korea, Taiwan to Tunisia, voters have brought back the "bad guys" to power, as noted.

This happens, writes the American newspaper, in a often messy post-transition environment where some voters feel nostalgia for the authoritarian past. In Cuba's case, the party could point to its achievements in free public services such as healthcare and domestic security.

Authoritarian regimes like Cuba's, born from revolutions, often survive for decades but struggle when the revolutionary generation dies out, especially if they cannot find alternative sources of legitimacy, such as China's economic growth in recent decades.

Unfortunately for the Cuban people, according to the American newspaper, there are few signs that an alternative option is being considered. Instead, most indications point to the status quo – a successor who is not a Castro is being chosen, but that does not mean a transition to a freer regime is underway.

It is clear that Castro will step down as president, but that does not mean full retirement. He will remain at the helm of the Communist Party and unofficially as head of the military, the two most important institutions in the country. When former authoritarian rulers retain control over key positions in the state, they are able to veto any potential democratic opening. Castro's son and daughter will remain in influential positions. Alejandro heads the Ministry of Interior, and Mariela is a member of the National Assembly and head of Cuba's National Center for Sex Education. Alejandro is known for valuing efficiency, while Mariela is oriented toward the LGBT population. But neither of them, according to the commentary, is inclined toward liberal politics.

Beyond the family, the fact is that Raul Castro's greatest political legacy is military control of the economy. The Cuban military, through its conglomerate Gaesa, owns most large companies. Any economic reformer knows that ending this monopoly is very difficult. The Cuban military appears committed not only to one-party rule but also to a one-company economy.

Analysts believe that even after the elections, the Cuban regime will remain in the shadow of the Castro family, and the military and regulatory system designed to limit the growth of businesses and political organizations will reduce pressure for democratization. Perhaps the only possible pressure for greater democracy after the elections could arise from a conflict between the party and the military. These are two separate entities, each with its own culture, resources, and support base.