Kovačević: Without a referendum, Dodik loses his status as the "first Serb" in Republika Srpska

Professor Goran Kovačević, an assistant professor at the Faculty of Criminalistics, Criminology and Security Studies in Sarajevo, does not believe that Dodik will face serious consequences due to the referendum, as the leaders of SDA and HDZ BiH - Bakir Izetbegović and Dragan Čović - indirectly helped him in its preparation with their statements and decisions.

In an interview with BN Television, he explains that the main initiator of the referendum, the President of Republika Srpska and SNSD, Milorad Dodik, sent messages to the West that it was merely a survey of citizens, but he did not dare to abandon holding the referendum.

- Dodik must hold this referendum. Without a referendum, he loses his status as the "first Serb" in Republika Srpska. By holding the referendum, he is trying to save himself from more dangerous situations, such as the possibility of state institutions getting involved in investigating allegations that he committed certain criminal offenses, where millions of amounts are attributed to him. The referendum is only his personal interest, not the interest of the Serb people in Republika Srpska and BiH - Kovačević says.

The announcement of the referendum was accompanied by inflammatory rhetoric, and the atmosphere was brought to a boiling point by joint special police exercises on both sides. It was clear to the opposition Alliance for Change from the start that Dodik was holding the referendum because of the elections, but they had no other option, finding themselves in a political checkmate position.

- Dodik has created a very interesting political situation where the opposition, namely the Alliance for Change, is blocked at every level. Any action against his, obviously unconstitutional moves, as we have the stance of BiH and the decision of the Constitutional Court stating that these moves are illegal, would be considered an anti-Serb move. This would generally mean a loss of votes for that political option - Kovačević explains for BN Television.

He states that if there had not been tacit support from the Federation and if Čović and Izetbegović had not signed the coordination mechanism and helped the IMF money reach BiH, we would not have had a referendum, but a collapse of the government led by Milorad Dodik.

- Izetbegović and Čović did not allow that, so they signed an agreement with the IMF so that the tranche would come and the money would be secured to hold the referendum - Kovačević is categorical.

The fear of legal responsibility, due to investigations related to corruption and crime, is common to the three key political leaders in BiH, and especially to Dodik. They are skillfully hiding this behind pre-election chaos, to which citizens are accustomed, but, says Kovačević, the pre-election campaign is a cover for much more dangerous processes that have been set in motion in BiH and Republika Srpska.

- The fact that Dodik – Izetbegović – Čović are accused of major criminal activities in which billions of convertible marks have disappeared must not be overlooked, and if these people really have that money, it is not a problem for them to send people from all three sides to war. This would lead us to the situation where no one has ever been convicted for pre-war crime, only for war and post-war crime. Therefore, the number of victims is irrelevant compared to the possibility of a person with billions going to prison - concludes Professor Kovačević.

He believes that Dodik will not face consequences after the referendum because, as he says, no one in BiH has ever been held accountable for anything. He is concerned about the consequences, as he is not sure that political leaders will be able to easily cushion the crisis that the referendum has produced.