Just Security: EU and US trying to bribe ethno-nationalists in BiH in the name of de-escalation

The European Union and the United States are trying to "bribe ethno-nationalists in Bosnia and Herzegovina with the natural heritage of the Bosnian people" in the name of de-escalating the political situation in the country, but this tactic represents a "own goal" and therefore Western countries should "correct their course" on BiH, write political analysts Kurt Bassuener and Toby Vogel.

They state in an analysis titled "EU-US Plan for Bosnia Risks Undermining New Sanctions and Empowering Putin," published on the Just Security portal, that US State Department official Matthew Palmer and his European Union counterpart Angelina Eichhorst are expected to return to Bosnia and Herzegovina next week "once again seeking to postpone a political collapse that threatens to trigger renewed violent conflict."

"However, they are clearly continuing to pursue the retrograde formula of electoral law and 'limited constitutional reform' that would further consolidate the country's ethno-territorial oligarchy and prevent internal citizen pressure for real progress," they assessed.

"Fearless Milorad Dodik"

They recalled the fact that this visit will be their first since the Joe Biden administration imposed additional US sanctions against member of the Presidency of BiH Milorad Dodik.

"Clearly unfazed, he has since overseen a parade of his paramilitary forces on January 9, with the presence of convicted war criminals, on the occasion of the illegal holiday marking the declaration of independence of Bosnian Serbs that spurred the beginning of the 1992-95 war in Bosnia," the analysts write.

They then add that EU parliamentarians and some EU member states have expressed support for sanctions similar to those imposed by the US, but have so far failed to convince their colleagues to take a similar step.

"This ambivalence accompanies the joint EU and US pursuit of a political agreement that would reward Dodik with a prize for his nationalist ally, Bosnian Croat Dragan Čović. This would essentially result in a de facto third Croatian entity in Bosnia," they claim.

"Alarming" Package

Bassuener and Vogel state that European Commissioner for Neighbourhood and Enlargement Oliver Varhelyi, whom they call a close associate of Hungarian illiberal Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, announced in November that he had made progress with "stakeholders" towards such a package deal.

"Alarmingly, this package also signals a possible withdrawal from the criminalization of genocide denial and the glorification of war crimes," warns this political analyst.

In their analysis, they explain that the current crisis was triggered by Dodik after former High Representative Valentin Inzko introduced a law prohibiting the denial of genocide and the glorification of war crimes and criminals, and that this is precisely a widespread phenomenon in the "lawless political environment" in BiH.

Varhelyi, according to an internal EU report, blamed Inzko for the crisis in the country and, according to Vogel and Bassuener, "yielded to Dodik's demands to include the genocide denial law" in a package of concessions, which would also "reward him with powers to dispose of state property, a particularly confusing step given the openness it creates for corruption after the United States has just added corruption to its sanctions charges against Dodik."

The Issue of State Property

"Indeed, with all eyes on Dodik's secessionist moves – which Western diplomats still largely describe as 'rhetoric' despite the actions he and his associates in power have taken to concretize them – the seemingly obscure issue of state property could be far more important than other concessions the international community has proposed in recent years: it would provide him with the material basis for independence and potential unification with neighboring Serbia," they warn.

"Namely, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, whom the United States and the EU inexplicably see as a stabilizing factor in the Western Balkans and supposedly as someone who has a restraining influence on Dodik, announced in October that the goal is to annul the BiH Constitutional Court's ruling on state property to achieve what Dodik wants," they add.

They explain that the issue of the distribution of state property between the state and other levels of government has long been contentious and that, along with the issue of defense property, it covers two of the "5+2" conditions set by the Peace Implementation Council for the closure of the OHR, which "obstructionists" Russia and China desire.

"The 5+2 agenda, by any intellectually honest measure, is nowhere near complete. Nevertheless, achieving the 5+2 goals and conditions is clearly seen as an approximate medium-term goal for Western diplomats, despite the continuous deterioration of the security, political, and social situation in BiH since these conditions were declared almost 14 years ago," they claim.

"Vučić in Dodik's Name"

They cited Vučić's statements from October, which they claim he made "in Dodik's name," that most state property consists of forests, rivers, and agricultural land – "a massive 54 percent of BiH's territory is state-owned, of which 71 percent are forests."

"Illegal commercial activities on this land, such as logging by politically connected individuals, have long been reported and documented. Given the scale of this illegal activity already, it is impossible to believe that opening this territory to entities, cantons, and municipalities would be anything other than accelerating the plunder and destruction of BiH's common natural heritage and wealth," they warned.

They assess that "the underdeveloped and less populated Republika Srpska has a disproportionate amount of state property" and that "it is no coincidence that Dodik now wants legal permission to break into this natural piggy bank."

"The commercial debt taken on by his entity government, with which he has fed his patronage machine, will soon come due," they claim, adding that Dodik therefore needs collateral and that the forests, rivers, and other land in BiH offer precisely such an opportunity.

They state that while Varhelyi tried last month to "sweeten his package" by noting that it would facilitate BiH's attraction of funds from EU development funds, the available amounts pale in comparison to the value of public property that would be gifted to Dodik, his partner Čović, and Bakir Izetbegović by such an agreement that would make BiH's system "even more feudal and irresponsible."

"Essentially, the EU and the United States are trying to bribe ethno-nationalists in BiH with the natural heritage of the Bosnian people. All in the name of a politically easier path to 'de-escalation' (however illusory) than confronting the long-term failure of policy and rectifying it."

"Putin's Most Problematic and Valuable Ally in the Region"

Varhelyi's package, supported by the US, would, according to these analysts, essentially "appease those who threaten peace" but, instead, the Biden administration should "listen to the citizens of BiH and the parliamentarians of the European Union and Britain who have called for a course correction."

"This means restoring credible deterrence on the ground with NATO troops (including Americans), to show that Republika Srpska will not be allowed to strive for independence and that any form of violence will be prevented. It also means ceasing the search for electoral 'reforms' that would further isolate leaders from political and legal responsibility, making the system even more impermeable to citizen initiative."

They warn that Varhelyi's package would not only contradict the "most praised goals of US and EU policy (fighting illiberalism, corruption, and climate change, as well as resisting geopolitical adversaries), but would also benefit Russia."

"It would reward Putin's most problematic – and therefore most valuable – ally in the region, Dodik, precisely at a time when the Kremlin is threatening to escalate its eight-year war in Ukraine and demanding the abolition of sovereignty for a number of NATO and EU members (now including Sweden). For this and all other reasons listed above, Varhelyi's package would be nothing more than an own goal for the United States and the EU," explain Bassuener and Vogel.

"The West Has the Ability to Correct Its Course"

They assessed that "the West has the ability to correct its course" and that, if there is a will to do so, the United States, the EU, the United Kingdom, and other allies have more structural capacity to prevent violence and limit the ability of nationalist leaders in BiH to cause lasting damage than they do anywhere else in the world.

They recalled the proposal of Baroness Arminka Helić in the UK House of Lords, that "the United States, the EU, the UK, and other democracies should pursue the goal of a 'social contract for the 21st century' with the citizens of BiH without the participation of BiH's ethno-nationalists, which would open space for an inclusive bottom-up political process."

"If the Biden administration, for its part, is sincere in its desire to counter threats to the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Bosnia, to promote functional and responsible governance so that the citizens of BiH can build a future, and to send a message that the United States will resist intimidation by retrograde nationalists, the current US policy needs a radical re-evaluation. The focal points of US policy should be demonstrating solidarity for restoring deterrence, collectively punishing Dodik's escalation (as the US has begun to do with recent sanctions), and creating conditions for lasting, not superficial, progress," the analysts emphasized.

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