Janusz Bugajski: The goal of the referendum is to undermine the BiH Constitutional Court

Regardless of whether the planned constitutional referendum in Republika Srpska is held or not, it is clear that the leadership in Banja Luka is using every opportunity as an incentive to gain greater sovereignty, writes Jutarnji list columnist Janusz Bugajski, reports Patria.

President Milorad Dodik is calculating, Bugajski further states, that he will lead the entity to an independent state before he leaves the political scene. The planned referendum aims to undermine the BiH Constitutional Court, but above all to legitimize the self-determination of the Serb entity. Banja Luka wants the Day of Republika Srpska to continue to be celebrated on January 9, despite the fact that this date has been declared unconstitutional and discriminatory to non-Serbs.

- Various reasons are cited for the possible postponement of the referendum. Dodik could insist that the plebiscite be held when all Bosnian Serb parties finally decide on it, in order to ensure consensus. Some Serb opposition parties, including some of Dodik's political allies, oppose the referendum. Some observers believe that Dodik will yield to growing international pressure. EU and US officials have warned him that the referendum could be considered illegitimate and lead to financial sanctions against him, his family members, and some of his supporters - says Bugajski, continuing:

- However, one of the strongest persuasive factors for Dodik is the role Serbia plays. Serbian President Tomislav Nikolić and Prime Minister Aleksandar Vučić have refrained from openly supporting the vote. Without Belgrade's support, Banja Luka would remain isolated in the region.

Analysts also speculate whether canceling the referendum would mark the end of Dodik's political career. It is more likely that Dodik will organize a dramatic final exit from the political scene with a referendum on independence to ensure he leaves a historical legacy behind.

To demonstrate his nationalist credentials and re-secure popularity before the local elections on October 2, Dodik announced a new initiative to abolish the House of Peoples of Republika Srpska. This parliamentary body plays an important role in protecting the rights of non-Serbs, and its dissolution will be interpreted as consolidating ethnic homogeneity before a possible referendum on independence.

Dodik has already announced that a vote on independence will be held in 2018 if various jurisdictions are not returned to the Serb entity in 2017 in accordance with Dayton and the BiH Constitution. Such a referendum could be held if a major political crisis erupts in BiH, if protests against the worsening economic situation in Republika Srpska escalate, or if attention needs to be diverted from internal power struggles within the Serb entity.

A referendum on independence could also be organized if the international atmosphere becomes favorable. If the rift between the West and Russia widens, Moscow will oppose any international intervention while supporting RS's right to self-determination.

In the event of an East-West crisis elsewhere, Moscow may play the Bosnian card against Washington and Brussels, strengthening the prospects for a new Balkan war. Even in the case of a constitutional referendum, divisions are evident in the international community, with no possibility of consensus on sanctions.

Even some EU and NATO member states strongly oppose the implementation of the High Representative's executive powers, arguing that BiH should no longer be regulated by international actors at the internal level. Furthermore, the High Representative has limited options for implementing his decisions. This could encourage Bosnian Serbs to ignore his decisions and escalate the crisis without fear of punishment. Banja Luka will also be encouraged by the weakening of the EU, especially if the Union is shaken by a new economic or migrant crisis, or if nationalist and anti-enlargement sentiments continue to grow. Additionally, a confused Washington could mean a weakening of the US role in the Balkans. Donald Trump's presidency, if based on the premise of reducing the US military and political presence in Europe, will provide new opportunities for separatism in various parts of the region.

Bugajski further writes that much depends on Serbia's assessments. The government in Belgrade has turned towards EU membership. If the prospects for this are postponed indefinitely, nationalism will rise in Serbia, which could push the government towards supporting the creation of a second Serb state. Officials will argue that the Kosovo precedent should also apply to BiH.

- In the midst of the current stalemate, RS and Serbia held their first joint "anti-terrorist" maneuvers at the end of August. The exercises heightened regional concerns that Belgrade is prepared to defend the entity in case of conflict with Sarajevo. Around 200 members of RS and Serbian special police units, with armored vehicles, helicopters, police river boats, and ships, simulated fighting terrorists along the Drina River near Zvornik.

The maneuvers, which heightened ethnic tensions in the country, were attended by both Nikolić and Dodik. The Bosniak Vice-President of Republika Srpska, Ramiz Salkić, accused the Serb leaders of "rattling their sabers." The exercises along the Drina were primarily intended as a demonstration to Sarajevo that Banja Luka possesses its own combat units and can combine them with forces from Serbia in the event of an armed conflict with Bosniaks - believes Bugajski, reports Patria.