'Izetbegović adopted an unenforceable Declaration, Dodik is fishing in troubled waters'

Written by: A. Aljović

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At a time when the European Union is trying to consolidate its own ranks, burdened by Brexit and other problems, such as protests in France or the retirement of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Milorad Dodik in Bosnia and Herzegovina is using such a vacuum and trying to bring down state institutions, which could lead the country into a deep crisis, but also destabilize the entire region, which is at risk of an escalation of conflict in BiH.

"I believe that external political conditions for the dissolution of BiH will be created. And I believe that this dissolution should be peaceful. It is best for everyone to cooperate and live in peace without rigid borders, to have a compatible economic system, and to be politically sovereign in making all important decisions. Whether it will be 2035 or earlier is completely irrelevant." Dodik has often repeated this stance in the last few years. For such a policy, the president of the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) has the support of Serbia, but also of some world powers like Russia, while recently China or France have very often sided with Dodik, such as at the last session of the Peace Implementation Council (PIC) in BiH when those countries, along with Italy, rejected the proposal of Great Britain, which sought for the International Community to very clearly state that Dodik had crossed the red line and was endangering peace.

Dodik draws internal political support from the president of the Croatian Democratic Union, Dragan Čović.

The latest tensions in BiH have escalated after the SDA's declaration in which the president of that political party, Bakir Izetbegović, called for "the affirmation of Bosnian identity as a common identity of all citizens of BiH", "while respecting the ethnic identity of all three constituent peoples", which Dodik interpreted as "a resolution of the Muslim people in BiH that calls for conflict". "The right to self-determination is our response to the attempt to abolish the RS," said Dodik, while the SNSD at its Main Board session on Wednesday called for "an initiative to be launched to return the Republika Srpska and the Federation of BiH to their constitutional frameworks" and to abolish some state laws and institutions.

Analysts, such as Srđan Puhalo from Banja Luka, who spoke to Al Jazeera, point out that it is unclear why the SDA advocates for "the affirmation of Bosnian identity" when a new state arrangement cannot be implemented without parliamentary consent from all three constituent peoples in BiH, or why Dodik talks about an attempt to abolish the RS "when that cannot be done without parliamentary consent from all three constituent peoples in BiH", while political analyst Muharem Cero assesses that Dodik's insistence that Serbian politicians withdraw from state institutions and his invocation that the Republika Srpska and the Federation of BiH sit down at the negotiating table reveals his intention to try to use the current political crisis to dispossess state institutions and transfer all power to the entities, which would be "a step towards the confederalization of Bosnia and Herzegovina, i.e., creating legal preconditions for the Republika Srpska, an entity in BiH, to also gain the right to secede from Bosnia and Herzegovina, which it currently does not have."

"Bosnia and Herzegovina has found itself in a very high degree of danger," commentators believe, while the dismissal of the Vice President of the National Assembly of the Republika Srpska, Senad Bratić, reminds some of them of the nineties just before the start of the bloody aggression against the country. Therefore, activists have for some time been calling on civic and left-wing political parties to oppose ethno-national parties through political means, in order to avoid new conflicts.

The US Embassy issued a statement late on Wednesday saying that the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina are guaranteed by the Dayton Peace Agreement. They criticized the rhetoric of politicians in BiH, stating that "any change in the internal organization of the country must be adopted in accordance with the procedures established in the Constitution, which requires broad support within the political spectrum of BiH, including all constituent peoples." The US position remained unchanged: "Neither Dayton nor the BiH Constitution offers entities the right to secede. The existence of each entity is entirely dependent on the existence of BiH."