Either the state or the secessionists

By: Nermin Tursić


Without any doubt, Bosnia and Herzegovina is experiencing the deepest post-war political crisis, characterized by an attempt to disable the work of the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina by the authorities of the "RS" led by Milorad Dodik. Concrete measures in this fight include the adoption of the Law on Non-Application of Decisions of the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina in the territory of the "RS", as well as the Law on Non-Publication of Decisions of the High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and thus the non-acceptance of the validity of decisions in the territory of that BiH entity. All of this is complemented by announced decisions on the non-acceptance of decisions from the Prosecutor's Office and Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina, SIPA, and announcements of strengthening inter-entity lines. Although the mentioned proposals can be stopped by the Constitutional Court of the "RS", the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina, or the High Representative, almost all expectations of the public, and a large part of the political community, are directed towards the reaction of the High Representative. Therefore, the resulting crisis is very often qualified in media headlines as a conflict between Milorad Dodik and the High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina, or Milorad Dodik and the international community.

Such a qualification gained particular significance when the media began to report that the High Representative, Mr. Christian Schmidt, might, based on his "Bonn Powers", dismiss the President of the "RS" from his position, and in accordance with the latest amendment to the Criminal Code of Bosnia and Herzegovina, all those who do not respect his decisions could be criminally prosecuted. However, the question arises as to how this is enforceable? In the event of intervention by state security forces to protect potential arrests of suspects, would the police of the "RS" stand in their way? What would be the outcome of such an activity? In any case, the situation will be quickly clarified with the publication or non-publication of the set of mentioned laws, as well as with other actions taken by state institutions.

In essence, this is a continuation of the previous practice of unconstitutional actions by the authorities of the "RS", which in the first phase should result in a form of legal secession with the ultimate intention of abandoning the entity from the constitutional and legal order of the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which is already referred to as actual secession. Despite the fact that the political actions of the authorities of the "RS" are undoubtedly aimed at delegitimizing the High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina as the ultimate authority in overseeing and implementing the civilian aspects of the "Dayton Peace Agreement", it is necessary to mention that the qualification of the conflict as Dodik-Schmidt is not entirely correct. Also, it cannot be said that Milorad Dodik is currently carrying out a classic coup d'état, because a coup d'état represents an act of violent seizure of power. More precisely, it is necessary to conceptually precisely define the action, which in no case represents a personal conflict between two individuals, nor Milorad Dodik's desire to violently seize state power.

This is a conflict between the entity authorities of the "RS", led by Milorad Dodik, against the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina, with a clear intention: to overthrow the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Without any doubt, he is doing this in coordination with Belgrade and Moscow, in accordance with the "Serbian World" project (which is currently also in the interest of the Russian Federation and its actions in the Balkans). Although this project is very often academically equated with the "Greater Serbia" project, a clear distinction must be made between them. Specifically, "Serbian World" is a much "more modern" and operational, and therefore more dangerous, Greater State project. Namely, while "Greater Serbia" sought to include significantly larger territories of former Yugoslav republics, relying on the strength of the former JNA, the "Serbian World" project is much more precise, sophisticated, and above all, implementable. It is focused on territories where ethnic Serbs are the absolute majority. Thus, in addition to other neighboring territories, it is focused on the "RS", or "only" 49 percent of the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina. And precisely on that part of the state which is under the absolute ethnic domination of Bosnian Serbs and the secessionist government of Milorad Dodik. Based on these facts, as well as the suffix "Srpska", the entity "RS" is perceived as a category of ethnic ownership. Therefore, with concentrated political power, Milorad Dodik, through his actions, clearly wants to convey to domestic and foreign authorities that he is not part of the "RS" system, but that he is the "RS" system. A system that, contrary to the decisions of the High Representative, can protect itself and all other followers of his policy, regardless of the fact that the political crisis may escalate into a security one.

In such a situation, preventive action from the USA, EU, and UK is expected. First and foremost, this action should be support for domestic judicial institutions, which should take all legal measures and actions against the actors of the crisis, as well as other security measures, such as the additional deployment of NATO forces in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
As a preventive measure, but also as a message for all future attempts, official sanctions should be imposed on the holders of entity authority, including "unofficial" ones that could be projected as a form of economic isolation of the "RS", similar to the "Cypriot model". In that case, it would mean that Milorad Dodik has turned the BiH entity "RS" into one of the most isolated regions of Europe, the final price of which would be "paid" by the citizens of the "RS" (and also of Bosnia and Herzegovina).

In addition to the above, it is necessary to mention Dodik's continuous belittling and humiliation of the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina, defining it as a protectorate, colony, or confederation composed of two entities. In addition to using such a conceptual definition of the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina as justification for the adoption of the aforementioned laws, he does so permanently with the intention of devaluing its statehood. He tries to present to the public that the institutional strength of the state does not exist, but that the entities are the bearers of statehood.
Despite this, the truth is quite the opposite. Entities are not state-forming units, while Bosnia and Herzegovina, as an independent state, belongs to the international order of sovereign states. Due to the above, it should be emphasized that there is no institution of a protectorate in contemporary international relations. The term is studied in political and legal theories, and it refers to a form of interstate relations that in the past meant that a certain territory was internationally assigned a protector state, which had the obligation to regulate its internal affairs and international representation.

The term colonial rule is also mentioned only as a relic of the past, as is the case with the term confederation. Despite this, in his public appearances, he very often emphasizes that there are no sovereign states with colonial (read: "foreign") influence, as is the case with Bosnia and Herzegovina. Of course, this position is also contrary to the truth, because a large number of states have used international assistance in the processes of establishing or transitioning their constitutional-legal and democratic order. So it is not out of place to mention some examples.

Although Bosnia and Herzegovina is very often compared to Belgium or Switzerland due to its ethnic structure or internal organization, in this case it is more appropriate to mention some "similarities" with Andorra as a "European" state. Similar to Bosnia and Herzegovina, it has a multi-ethnic population structure (proportionally composed of Spaniards with 61%, Andorrans with 30%, French with 6%, while others make up 3% of the total population, with Catalan as the official language). According to its form of government, it is a parliamentary democracy with an executive branch that functions on the principle of a collective head of state composed of the President of France and the Bishop of Urgell from Spain. The appointment of the highest judicial authority is made on a parity basis. Two of the four members of the Constitutional Court of Andorra are appointed by the President of France, while the remaining two are appointed by Spain.

The state does not have its own army, so France and Spain are again responsible for its defense. Despite this, it is not a protectorate, nor a colony, but a sovereign and independent state, a full member of the UN. From the above, it can be concluded that in certain elements the Andorran system resembles the Bosnian-Herzegovinian one, especially in the structure and appointment process of constitutional judges. Although, in essence, the mentioned example does not have too much significance for daily political relations within Bosnia and Herzegovina, it nevertheless directly contradicts the mentioned qualifications.

Finally, it should be emphasized that there is no doubt that all political activities in the "RS" are of a much broader nature, so the motives for the coordination of the "RS" authorities with other centers of political power are understandable. Precisely because of this (as well as due to the current international situation), there should be no further tolerance of the destruction of the state. The state of Bosnia and Herzegovina, using its own capacities, the strength of the OHR, and the support of the international community, must initiate all mechanisms for the protection of the constitutional and legal order, state sovereignty, and territorial integrity, and this as a constitutional obligation. Otherwise, the logic is simple. In the Bosnian-Herzegovinian case, neither the state nor the secessionists/coup plotters can survive. One must fall.