Huskić: If international actors do not react, BiH enters a turbulent period

Political analyst Adnan Huskić believes that citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina will see in the next few days whether the Office of the High Representative exists in BiH or not, i.e., whether the OHR is only physically present in BiH, without any influence, writes the Patria news agency.

- If the OHR fails to react to the announcement of holding a referendum on January 9 in the RS, Huskić tells NAP, BiH enters a very turbulent time, without the influence of the international community operating in BiH, and then no one can be sure what that will mean for overall relations in the country.

If Dodik's referendum on January 9, scheduled for September 25, passes, Huskić believes that the SNSD leader will only raise the bar in the coming period, up to a final referendum on secession.

The Constitutional Court of BiH declared January 9, which is celebrated in the RS as RS Day, unconstitutional, and as such it cannot be celebrated. The Constitutional Court of BiH, it should be noted, did not by its decision prohibit the RS from celebrating any other date as RS Day, but exclusively January 9.

The authorities in the RS do not want to accept such a decision of the Court. For September 25, they announced a referendum, in which citizens in the RS will declare whether they want January 9 to be celebrated as the day of this BiH entity.

The referendum question should read: "Do you support that January 9 be celebrated and observed as the Day of Republika Srpska?".

- We should look at the entire situation from several aspects. First, the reason why Milorad Dodik embarked on the referendum is more or less known to everyone. He cannot offer any constructive campaign and debate in Republika Srpska. Because this BiH entity has been brought to a beggar's staff in the last eight years.

These are very clear facts. So, it is not about speculation or assessments. Simply, the government in the RS has destroyed, impoverished Republika Srpska during the rule of Milorad Dodik. And now, the only thing left for Dodik, which is the eternal refuge of all, is to turn to conflict against others, who supposedly hinder things from being better in society, says Huskić and adds:

- So, the argumentation for why Dodik started the story about the referendum is clear.

Huskić believes that the dynamics in Republika Srpska are such that Dodik first managed to draw the opposition onto "very thin ice, onto his turf". This happened because the opposition parties in the RS are equally nationalist as Dodik and his SNSD. This further complicates the situation in BiH, but also prolongs the rule of Milorad Dodik.

- One should not forget the fact that the Alliance for Changes, without any restraint, gave support to Dodik when it comes to the referendum. And what did they do? They brought themselves to the point of having a referendum seven days before the local elections in BiH.

And, organizing something like that seven days before the elections is an attempt at electoral engineering. And this electoral engineering, (assuming the referendum will be held), will definitely yield better election results for the SNSD. There is no doubt about that, says Huskić for Patria.

- The second aspect is how the international factor will react to all this. Milorad Dodik is now definitely crossing the red line. He is not only questioning the decisions of the Constitutional Court of BiH, because they have not been implemented for a long time. The same invoice as for the SNSD can be established for HDZ BiH and SDA. Here, the issue is that Dodik is testing where the boundaries are and how determined the international actors in BiH are.

First, whether the OHR is present in BiH at all. That is the key question. Second, if it happens that the response of the international community is to ignore the entire situation regarding the referendum, that will mean that the path is open for Milorad Dodik to raise the bar to a higher level whenever he needs it, and ultimately demand a referendum on independence, i.e., secession, Huskić believes.