Will the coalition at the Council of Ministers level survive?

By: Hamza Memišević

"The Resolution (signed) the end of BiH", stated the president of the Bosnian-Herzegovinian entity Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, on the occasion of the adoption of the UN General Assembly Resolution on the Srebrenica genocide.

A month and a half later, we are closer to the assertion that the self-proclaimed European avant-garde embodied in SNSD, HDZ, and the Troika have ended their honeymoon. Milorad Dodik, as well as Dragan Čović, have stated on several occasions that the coalition does not actually exist.

Although Dodik received all sorts of compliments at the beginning of the coalition's mandate, as things stand, that too has come to an end. According to current terminology, Dodik is the destroyer of the European path, and Konaković is a simpleton who accepts condolences. If part of the coalition wanted to see Dodik from the period when it was just formed again, then his unrealistic demands would have to be met, which include the dismissal of the BiH Minister of Foreign Affairs Elmedin Konaković, the Presidency member from the Bosniak people Denis Bećirović, and the BiH Ambassador to the UN Zlatko Lagumdžija.

The call from the US Ambassador Murphy to the leader of HDZ BiH Dragan Čović to end BiH's dependence on Russian gas in line with Euro-Atlantic positions and values, and to initiate the construction of the southern interconnector, also contributed to these tremors. Without defending Čović, it is clear, however, that the US Ambassador bears the greatest responsibility for why the issue of the southern interconnector remained without a final epilogue.

The current convocation of the Council of Ministers was formed with the wholehearted efforts of the US Embassy in BiH, and Milorad Dodik, as a sign of attention and gratitude for becoming part of the European coalition, pushed through a procedure via his cadres in the Council of Ministers that enabled the construction of the new eastern interconnector, which makes BiH dependent on Russian gas.

Furthermore, the US Ambassador recently stated that the current reality in BiH is similar to the 1990s, and that the key culprit is Milorad Dodik. The budget for 2024 has not yet been adopted, and the partners in power will have to discuss the Law on Courts of BiH, the Law on the HJPC, and other topics. The issue of the election law, which remains unresolved, should not be lost sight of.

Given the complexity of the relationships within the coalition at the state level, the question of a possible government reconstruction in the Council of Ministers also arises. Based on past experiences, it is difficult to expect serious corrections (other than cosmetic ones) in this regard. Ultimately, every government in BiH de facto survives because the BiH Constitution does not recognize the institution of early elections. There are several ways to open the issue of government reconstruction, and these are through the BiH Parliament, the BiH Presidency, or by the initiative of the Chairperson of the Council of Ministers.

Taking into account the complex structure of Dayton BiH, initiating a dismissal through the BiH Parliament would require general and entity consensus, i.e., approval from the House of Peoples of BiH. The further course of events will also largely depend on the will of the draw, according to which the position of the fourth delegate was assigned to Nenad Vuković from PDP. Although the story about a possible government reconstruction has been present in the public for some time, it remains unclear who would take the leading role in it?

The opposition from the entity Republika Srpska has expressed disinterest in forming a potential new convocation of the Council of Ministers. They believe that by losing the fourth delegate, SNSD would lose its controlling stake, which would significantly blunt Dodik's edge.

On the other hand, the Bosniak political reality does not offer clearly articulated positions. The Minister of Foreign Affairs, Konaković, has mentioned the possibility of changes in the Council of Ministers in several statements, which would include the return of SDA, which, according to him, is an old partner of SNSD, which would result in the departure of the current Bosniak composition in the Council of Ministers.

Denis Zvizdić, however, made different statements compared to the party leader of NIP, stating that the coalition will not last until the end of its mandate if Dodik does not change his approach, following which the Troika would be inclined to change its political partner and re-establish closer ties with the opposition from RS. However, the question is how inclined the key figures of SDS and PDP would be to cooperate with the Troika, considering the Troika's embrace of Dodik.

The existence of open issues on which the coalition disagrees is undeniable, but ultimately, what connects them has prevailed. One of the coalition's goals includes the dismissal of the leadership of the Central Election Commission, which will be particularly emphasized in a situation where SNSD has lost its fourth delegate in the House of Peoples of BiH. At first glance, the CEC's decision may seem like a defeat for Dodik; however, given his pragmatism and skill in manipulation, this could possibly be a Pyrrhic victory for the representatives of the opposition from RS.

It is certain that Milorad Dodik will use this case for the purposes of the election campaign, which is slowly approaching. Milorad Dodik has publicly stated that the coalition is over, although it is illusory to expect him to collapse a coalition that allows him complete control over the financial system at a time when companies and individuals from Republika Srpska close to his party are facing US sanctions.