Dodik's Arrest in Čović's Hands, but the Troika Must First Hand Over the BiH Presidency to HDZ

(Patria) - Under the distribution of power at the state level, the borders of Bosnia and Herzegovina are controlled by the HDZ BiH through its personnel in the Border Police of BiH.

Although the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina has issued a central warrant for Milorad Dodik, Nenad Stevandić, and Radovan Višković, just a few days ago, by traveling to Belgrade, Nenad Stevandić demonstrated the possibility of crossing the border of Bosnia and Herzegovina and returning to Bosnia and Herzegovina without hindrance.

Almost no one serious in BiH believes the awkward excuses about software scheduling that came from the Border Police, which correspond to the issuance of orders for the arrest of the attackers on the constitutional order. It is only a matter of days before Dodik demonstrates an unhindered crossing of the state border.

The Border Police of BiH has and will continue to have the ability to arrest Milorad Dodik, but the actual political decision on this matter lies in the hands of HDZ leader Dragan Čović.

It is hard to believe that Dragan Čović would suggest to his personnel any kind of detention, let alone the arrest of Milorad Dodik if they find themselves in such a situation, because that would mean the end of his twenty-year partnership with Dodik.

However, it is possible to expect that Čović will use Dodik's vulnerability and the circumstances surrounding his arrest to blackmail the Bosniak partners from the Troika by handing over the BiH Presidency to the HDZ. In return, the Border Police would indeed see fit to put up a barrier for Dodik if his path takes him outside Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The leader of the Bosniak representation, Elmedin Konaković, has already stated, as he said for the television "Herceg Bosne," that he is ready to hand over what the HDZ did not get in the negotiations in Neum, and that is precisely the BiH Presidency.

In the meantime, Milorad Dodik, aware that he cannot fully rely on Dragan Čović and the Border Police of BiH, is moving to form the Border Police of the RS, which should take control of that part of the border of Bosnia and Herzegovina that is closer to the RS entity.

Dodik is quite clear that he cannot rely with certainty on Dragan Čović and the Border Police of BiH. However, on the other hand, the Troika's handing over of the BiH Presidency to the HDZ would be a sufficient argument for the leaders of that political group to believe that the Border Police of BiH and Dragan Čović will not be friendly towards Milorad Dodik.

(M.T.)