Where will party leaders be on the election ballots: A scramble for the shade in the BiH House of Peoples!

By the middle of next month, political parties must submit final candidate lists to the Central Election Commission, after which it will be fully known who will enter which electoral battle, reports the BiH news agency Patria (NAP).

These days are particularly turbulent in all parties as candidate lists are being finalized, and party leaders must make the final decision on where and at what level of government they will run. The ambitions of the parties will be largely reflected in the decisions of the party presidents, and the election results will also largely depend on them.

The braver and more ambitious ones go into the heart of the electoral battle for a seat in the BiH Presidency, while others have a plethora of options to secure a seat in one of the parliamentary benches through electoral planning. The paradox is that political leaders in BiH, unlike in most countries, shy away from prime ministerial positions.

The BiH news agency Patria (NAP) has investigated, based on current information, what the decisions might be regarding where and for what the presidents of the largest parties will run.

Bakir Izetbegović (SDA) – The current deputy president of the SDA came to the top of the party due to the illness of president Sulejman Tihić, who will not run in the elections. Izetbegović will almost certainly be a candidate for a member of the BiH Presidency. He has stated several times in public that he expects to be nominated. Any other option would be a big surprise.

Zlatko Lagumdžija (SDP) – As certain as Izetbegović will run for the Presidency, so certain is it that Lagumdžija will not. Most likely, Lagumdžija will lead the list for the BiH Parliament, in order to "pull" it, and then later move to some executive position – most likely – the position of Chairman of the Council of Ministers of BiH.

Milorad Dodik (SNSD) – will be a candidate for the President of RS. Dodik lacks the courage or political vision to run for a state-level position. By doing so, he wants to show that the entity is dearer and closer to him than the state. For the BiH Presidency, he wants to nominate Marko Pavić, a coalition partner and the mayor of Prijedor, known for denying crimes and genocide.

Dragan Čović (HDZ BiH) – still undecided. He will most likely avoid running for a member of the Presidency again, fearing he will lose. He has been out of executive power for a long time, and it is not excluded that he will again be on the list for the BiH Parliament, and later for some executive position. It is not excluded that he will again aim for a position in the BiH House of Peoples.

Fahrudin Radončić (SBB BiH) – his candidacy for a member of the BiH Presidency is expected. However, that decision has not yet been made. It is not excluded that he will abandon this, hoping that as a desirable coalition partner after the elections, he will find a position in the executive branch. In that case, he would probably be the leader of the list for the state parliament or would even completely avoid running, dedicating himself entirely to the promotion and success of the party.

Mladen Bosić (SDS) – they are persuading him to be a counter-candidate to Dodik for the position of President of RS. However, that would be somewhat risky for him. He would lose a lot in case of defeat. Bosić, we learn, would gladly go to the BiH Presidency, but by all accounts, he will choose the first option, because only in this way could he disrupt Dodik's sovereign rule in the smaller entity.  

Mladen Raguž (HDZ 1990) – the leader of a smaller Croatian party is likely running for a member of the BiH Presidency and is not without chances at all. That party is waiting for the HNS to declare itself, but they are closest to the option of nominating Raguž for the highest position. As a moderate politician, Raguž has supporters not only from the Croatian people.

Željko Komšić (Democratic Front) – does not have the right to a new mandate in the BiH Presidency, so he will likely go to the shade of the BiH House of Peoples and the Croat Caucus there. Therefore, he will lead the list for the cantonal parliament in Sarajevo, from where, ultimately, the BiH House of Peoples will be filled.