Galloping Support: How Dodik Won Over the West

It has recently been two full years since SNSD President Milorad Dodik was placed on the US blacklist in mid-January 2017. It was explained that he undermines the Dayton Agreement and poses a threat to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Not long after, his closest associate, Nikola Špirić, also faced difficulties. It was explained that through abuse of official position and financial malversations, Špirić undermines the economic stability of Bosnia and Herzegovina. 

The Western world has long warned about the dangerous separatist policies of Dodik and his associates, whose political adventurism could push Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as the region, into new bloody conflicts. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker warned in February at the initiative summit in Bucharest: “The perspective of the Western Balkan countries must be real, because if these countries do not become EU members, we risk a return to the ‘90s. I think it is a matter of war or peace.” On the other hand, Dodik did not spare the West either. In an interview with Russian Sputnik in August last year, he stated: “Meddle in our affairs — you will have us against you.“

Then things changed rapidly. At a time when a good portion of Bosnia and Herzegovina's citizens expected European sanctions for Dodik after the American ones, the SNSD president, with his well-known political pragmatism, began to gain Western sympathy alongside Russian support since the New Year. A kind of turnaround is happening. Dodik has divided his political activities into two blocks – domestic, where he says what his voters and eastern neighbors want to hear, and the Western market, where he says what they want to hear in Brussels. Thus, during a recent visit to Brussels, Dodik said that Republika Srpska is an entity within Bosnia and Herzegovina and that there are no secessionists in Republika Srpska. He said this clearly, unequivocally, with full awareness and material responsibility, in the presence of European Commissioner for Enlargement Johannes Hahn. The European leaders liked that. Two evenings later, on the show Telering on RTRS in Banja Luka, Dodik stated: “Republika Srpska is a state because it has a people, it has executive, legislative, and judicial power...“ This pleased Belgrade and Moscow. Is it possible that such transparent dilettantism is accepted at a time when the world has become a global village, where information travels from one end of the world to the other in mere seconds. Oh yes, it is very possible and it works.

At a time when Brussels is demanding faster reforms from the authorities in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Dodik addressed the media and gave the Council of Ministers only seven days to resolve the issue that is preventing cheaper telephone calls for citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina to the region, which the West will also greet with thunderous applause. Why are roaming prices not already cheaper? Because Dodik did not want it, just as he still does not want Bosnia and Herzegovina to join the unified emergency number 112. Dodik does not want citizens from Republika Srpska to have the same emergency number as citizens in the Federation. Hey, that terrible number. What kind? An international number in case someone in trouble can call for police or medical assistance.

Such political behavior could enable Dodik two things; the first is to maintain his political dominance in Republika Srpska, where he has ruled sovereignly for 15 years and drained the budget dry, by focusing on local national issues, and at the same time to get the green light and convince Western partners that his idea of greater autonomy or complete secession of Republika Srpska makes sense. It is impossible to agree on anything with Bosniaks anyway, because they often don't even want what they themselves want. Why would all this be important to Dodik? With Western support, no one would question him anymore about the multi-million dollar crimes he is currently accused of through privatization and public procurement in RS. Do citizens know how much lobbying around the world costs and how much Dodik had to pay for Western favor? If only the RS representation in Israel swallowed about 30 million of taxpayers' money, how much more did it cost to pay EU countries and partners in other parts of the world. Therefore, there is no doubt that support for Dodik's separatism would be a perfect solution to legalize everything he has done so far. And he has already announced about ten countries that would support him. Moreover, international circumstances are also changing rapidly.

What are the civic and leftist parties in Bosnia and Herzegovina doing in the meantime? They pose for photos on social media with pouting lips. They behave like offended brides. They refuse to join the government with national parties because they are protecting their credibility, which they are rapidly losing. They watch as Dodik takes over their interlocutors in Brussels before their eyes and seeks help for his fascist policies. To be more precise, Dodik is playing two games in Europe as well; one with Hahn and others, and another with Hungarian Prime Minister Orban and Austrian-Italian right-wingers, with whom he is uniting in the circle of European nationalists. One of these two policies must certainly be in power in Europe. And Dodik has shown that he has a suit for every occasion. Simply put, the left in BiH cannot agree among themselves, while Dodik successfully balances between the still civic Brussels, European nationalists, and the domestic rabble.

What else are the civic and leftist parties in Bosnia and Herzegovina doing during this time? They are defending the state with opposition statements. Soon, they may not even have to do that, as they might be left without a state.