EU faces another historically wrong decision

LJUBLJANA, (Patria) - The International Institute for Middle Eastern and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) from Ljubljana regularly analyzes events in the Middle East and the Balkans.

On the occasion of the announcement of the speech by the President of the European Commission (EC) Jean-Claude Juncker in the European Parliament on February 6, 2018, which will also concern the EU enlargement to the Western Balkans, IFIMES has prepared an analysis of the possible consequences of the announced speech and the EU's plans regarding enlargement. From the analysis "EU – Western Balkans: EU faces another historically wrong and unjust decision", we highlight the most important and interesting parts.

EU – Western Balkans: EU faces another historically wrong and unjust decision

In his address to the European Parliament (EP) in September 2017, the President of the European Commission (EC) Jean-Claude Juncker emphasized the EU's support for the Western Balkan countries to join the EU as soon as possible. He named the Republic of Serbia and Montenegro as the main favorites for priority entry into the EU.

Although the Republic of Serbia is the main driver of political, and thus security, instability in the region, Jean-Claude Juncker, despite a subsequent correction of his statement explaining that the "EU door" is open to all countries, still maintains that Serbia and Montenegro have a certain priority in the order of entry of Western Balkan countries into the EU, while a so-called regatta approach is introduced for other countries.

Unfortunately, the continuity of EU policy is such that BiH and Macedonia are set the most difficult conditions for membership, even though these countries need EU aid and support the most.

While Macedonia, with the strong support of the US and most of the EU, is trying to resolve contentious issues with its neighbors, especially with Greece, with the aim of joining NATO and the EU, Bosnia and Herzegovina, for who knows what time, receives only verbal support from the EU.

Zaev and Zvizdić are bearers of positive processes

Two politicians, Zoran Zaev, Prime Minister of the Republic of Macedonia, and Denis Zvizdić, Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina, are the bearers of the most positive political trends and processes not only in the Western Balkans. Both are trying and making efforts to strengthen their countries and bring them closer to the EU and NATO. Zaev is on the right track to resolving the most difficult political issues not only in the region, starting with the dispute with Greece over the name of the Republic of Macedonia to relations with Bulgaria. In this regard, Macedonia has signed a historic agreement on good neighborliness with Bulgaria, and the parliaments of the Republic of Macedonia and Bulgaria have ratified the agreement. Negotiations with Greece are moving in a positive direction towards finding a mutually acceptable solution, while the issue of relations with Albanians has been resolved by improving the use of the Albanian language and the languages of smaller ethnic communities, which contributes to better internal integration of the country. Zaev has also resolved Serbia's interference in Macedonian internal affairs in the best possible way, thus showing that he is an example of a politician who builds the well-being of his country and a multi-ethnic society on understanding, negotiation, and compromise. In the region, right next to Zaev, is Denis Zvizdić, a political leader firmly committed to the Euro-Atlantic path of Bosnia and Herzegovina, during whose mandate the European integration processes of accession were unblocked after almost eight years of stagnation. 31 military locations in BiH were registered as a condition for activating the MAP, an application for EU membership was submitted, and these days BiH will submit the Questionnaire to the European Commission as a condition for obtaining candidate status. It was precisely under Zvizdić's presidency that the aforementioned processes in Bosnia and Herzegovina were unblocked. In the meantime, Montenegro received candidate status in 2010, Serbia in 2012, Albania in 2014, and BiH was blocked from 2008-2015. With the arrival of Zvizdić in 2015, and then Zaev in Macedonia in May 2017, the Western Balkans gained new energy, gaining two leaders who can and know how to create an atmosphere of trust, mutual understanding, but also find compromises to the greatest extent so that Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina become full members of the EU and NATO.

The leading EU member states have very quickly forgotten that BiH was and remains the country that needed and still needs the most help from the EU due to the known events at the end of the last century. Analysts believe that it should not be forgotten that the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY), after Serbia and Montenegro, was the main factor of instability in the region and the EU, and that due to the expansionist wars waged by Slobodan Milošević, the international community, primarily the US and the EU, intervened militarily in BiH in 1995 under the auspices of NATO, while NATO intervened militarily against Serbia for almost three months in 1999, thus stopping the crimes against Albanians in Kosovo.

Elections in BiH – trigger for possible conflicts

The upcoming Parliamentary elections in BiH, which will be held on October 7, 2018, are a possible trigger for conflicts within BiH. Milorad Dodik (SNSD) is the planner and organizer of all activities that destabilize BiH and the region. He receives support not only from Serbia but also from Dragan Čović (HDZBiH) and parts of the HDZ of the Republic of Croatia. Bosniaks, as a constituent people, will most likely be divided into over 200 parties and independent lists in the upcoming general elections. The Republic of Croatia has deep financial ties with Russia, which affects NATO's overall security operations and the security of the EU. Croatian (counter)intelligence agencies do not cover Russian intelligence and military activities and interference in the region, and there is no cooperation between Croatia, as an EU and NATO member, and the countries of the region regarding Russian activities, especially in BiH. Milorad Dodik, through security agencies, which are mostly owned by his friends, trains his (para)military formations. Training is mainly conducted in the Middle East and Afghanistan.

Today, Serbia is pursuing a policy similar to the one Slobodan Milošević pursued, with the only change being that today it relies heavily on Russia's help and support. The actions and rhetoric of the political and church elite from Serbia are identical to those at the end of the last century, but today there is no JNA, and Serbia, like Russia, is surrounded by countries belonging to NATO. In such a situation, when Serbian policy continues to try to manipulate Serbs outside the territory of Serbia, endangering BiH, Macedonia, Kosovo, Montenegro, and even Croatia in certain ways, the EU is intensely trying to appease Serbia, a country that the NATO alliance considers an enemy organization and aggressor.

EU must change its approach to BiH and Macedonia

The EU must change its approach to BiH, but also to other countries that were victims of the expansionist policy of the FRY, i.e., Serbia, especially towards BiH, which was also exposed to the aggression of the Republic of Croatia. The EU must favor politicians who have sincerely shown through their past relations and activities that they are firmly committed to Euro-Atlantic integration.

There are open doubts whether Aleksandar Vučić, Milorad Dodik, Hashim Thaçi, Vučić's Serb in Kosovo Goran Rakić, Nikola Gruevski, Andrija Mandić, Milan Knežević, Dragan Čović are committed to European integration. In contrast, there are European-oriented politicians Zoran Zaev, Denis Zvizdić, Edi Rama, Duško Marković, and Albin Kurti.

While Aleksandar Vučić, along with the aforementioned politicians, is a generator of problems, Zoran Zaev, with a pleiad of young politicians from the region, still lacks adequate EU support. Therefore, the EU needs to urgently change its approach to the Western Balkans and focus on countries and political leaders who are genuinely European-oriented and who, with enormous energy and inspiration, are resolving the most difficult political and security challenges, not only of interest to their countries and the Western Balkans but also to the EU, provide them with all assistance and support their countries' accession to the EU and NATO as soon as possible.

Aleksandar Vučić is the "cloak and blanket" for all the aforementioned nationalists in the region, and by favoring Vučić and Serbia, the EU indirectly supports all those nationalist forces in the Western Balkan countries that "dream" of new borders and redrawing borders in the Balkans, starting from Dodik, through Čović, to Mandić and Gruevski.

By supporting politicians and countries that not only do not sincerely participate in integration processes but also "trip up" other Western Balkan countries, the EU is acting against its own interests, thereby further endangering the security situation in the Balkans and the EU.

Support for Zaev is simultaneously support for Zvizdić and Bosnia and Herzegovina, support for Zvizdić is support for Albin Kurti in Kosovo, i.e., support for democratic politicians in the Western Balkans by the EU is the key to resolving the crisis in the Western Balkans. The EU has a great responsibility, to support political leaders and countries that work against the security of the Western Balkans and the EU, or to go the "harder way" by supporting democracy and capable young politicians who have tackled the nationalist and autocratic systems and policies of the Western Balkans. Therefore, attacks and pressure on Zaev and Zvizdić will intensify.

Analysts believe that the EU, and especially Germany, should "favor" the entry into the EU of those countries that sincerely support their countries' membership in the EU, and focus on Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Republic of Macedonia, not Serbia, as the cause of all wars at the end of the last century, which is still one of the factors of instability in the region.

Support for democratically elected governments and politicians from the region who sincerely support Euro-Atlantic integration is the best roadmap for the EU, and they should use the precedents that were used in the accession of Romania, Bulgaria, and some other countries to the EU.

The EU's announcements and those of European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker that the next EU enlargement will occur in 2025 and that Serbia and Montenegro, favored then, will become full EU members, while the remaining countries will be left to uncertainty and Serbia's "goodwill" to block other countries in the region on the path to European integration, would represent a political and moral falter of the EU and another historically wrong and unjust decision by the EU, which will have far-reaching consequences for the future of the region and Europe as a continent.